From the morning of 2 April, international news agencies widely covered the armed escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Some speakers and publications even suggested that renewed full-scale war whose flame has been put out over 20 years ago.
The roots of modern conflict go in the time of the late USSR, when the ailing Empire couldn't hold its territory "parade of sovereignties". Moreover, the national aspirations and territorial conflicts between peoples were used as a means of struggle for power between different groups in Moscow. Due to complacency and sometimes outright incitement of the Kremlin tensions in the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous oblast of Azerbaijan SSR grew into a bloody war (1992-1994), which were already independent Azerbaijan and Armenia. The latter, of course, does not recognize itself a party to the conflict, otherwise it would have appeared before the international community as an aggressor, which occupied much of the territory of a neighbor. The Armenian position is that Azerbaijan is opposed to the "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" to defend their right to independence. But this trick does not change the facts: all along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is the front line. In addition, its border with Armenia, Turkey has blocked.In the end, Armenia was a little isolated from the world by a country with a land bridge only with Georgia and Iran.
Abandoned ruins of the Azerbaijani town of Agdam on the separation line of fire
By strange coincidence, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, as well as the Donbass, is engaged in the OSCE in Minsk. We have the Minsk agreements, and there is the Minsk group, co-chaired by Russia, France and USA. How successful is the Minsk process on Karabakh, judging by the fact that for over two decades, the conflict remains unresolved. Moreover, periodically erupts escalation: shooting and positional battles. Since the official ceasefire in may 1994 and to this day both sides have lost hundreds of soldiers. Of course, the April incident is the most dangerous of all time: was used heavy artillery, armor, aviation. But expect to resume full-scale war while there bases. Experts, constantly monitors the situation in the South Caucasus, already have strong nerves, their forecasts are restrained.
Over the past two decades, the conflict in Karabakh has been stable and controlled; between the parties was formed parity, not allowing anyone of them to claim a complete victory. On the one hand, Azerbaijan has built up serious military potential: appropriations Baku on defense already exceeds total state budget of Armenia. Baku military craves revenge, but held back by circumstances. Armenia is a member of Russia-led military-political bloc the CSTO. In the Armenian city of Gyumri stationed 102nd Russian military base. In addition, Russia has a common border with Azerbaijan. In Baku they believe that can win against Armenia, but only if not interfering Moscow.
Later, while the prospects of a turnaround situation vague, the Karabakh issue became a factor in the domestic policies of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Appealing to the need to be ready to defend/free their land, the authorities of the republics are looking for support in their societies, strengthen its position. The unresolved issue of Karabakh has become the resource of legitimacy of existing regimes in Baku and Yerevan. Periodic escalation designed serves as a reminder that "serious", and we need to unite around the correct course of government.
However, the international situation after the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2014 has changed significantly. The distraction of the Kremlin in other theatres of war (Donbass, Syria), and in the future, and the decline of power of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan gives hope that Armenia at the crucial moment will remain without a defender. The deterioration in Russian-Turkish relations allows Azerbaijan also count on the assistance of Ankara. No wonder the largest outbreak of escalation in Karabakh marked the summer of 2014. While this is only probing the situation, and it may continue.
Despite the fact that among the Ming assessors on Karabakh are present both Russia and Western countries, their interests are opposite. The West considers the southern Caucasus, primarily as a way to deliver the energy resources of the Caspian sea. It's such a narrow passage "mountain gorges", sandwiched between a hostile Russia and Iran who are at risk due to the proximity of frozen conflict in Karabakh, Tskhinvali region and Abkhazia.
Occupied territory and transport projects in South Caucasus
Western countries are genuinely committed to resolving Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. This will open the borders and implement transit projects through Armenia to Turkey – in addition to those that already operate on the territory of Georgia. However, the issue of peacekeeping, the Western countries demonstrate complete helplessness. They are against the military settlement of the conflict, but unable to offer anything else. Meanwhile, Armenia in all matters of foreign policy, including Ukraine, is led by the Kremlin. Yerevan understands that it is not the good intentions of the West, and military guarantees of the Russian Federation ensure its safety.
Russia is interested in the endless maintenance of the Minsk format on Karabakh in the form in which it is now. First, it blocks Western energy transport projects, and allows Russia to hold the monopoly of transit to access the resources of the Caspian sea and Central Asia.
Constrained by the conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan have each time to look to the Kremlin in its foreign policy. It is Russia that is the actual chief arbiter in this conflict, and Moscow does not intend to lose this role. Second, Russia's participation in the one mediation format, together with the Western countries, gives it significance and respectability. In light of the worsening attitude towards Russia over Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying in every way to emphasize its relevance in solving real-world problems. How can Europe stop the wave of terrorist attacks if Russia does not recognize full-fledged member of the coalition against ISIL? One who is able to stop a new war in Karabakh? Probably the one who in reality controls the level of violence. Without going into conspiracy theories, it is worth noting that the current escalation in Karabakh was favorable both to Azerbaijan and Russia, but completely different reasons.
In conclusion, we note that the ideal resolution of the Karabakh conflict would be finding a common language between Azerbaijan and Armenia without the "mediation" of Russia. Yet to be – on what conditions would come true truce. Because the parties ' positions seem incompatible: the maintenance of the status quo Armenia and the restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. But the rapidly changing geopolitical situation could, in the end, to force Armenia to think about the fact that she chose a bad ally. And if so, to avoid military defeat, certain concessions to Azerbaijan will be inevitable.
Maintaining Minsk format on Karabakh in its present form will not lead to anything except more deaths of troops and civilians, as well as to the satisfaction of the egoistic interests of pseudomonotone – RF. A similar role has provided Moscow and Minsk agreements on Donbas.
Author: Максим Майоров.
Source: InformNapalm
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