Today's reports of renewed hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh are nothing out of the ordinary. The essence of this conflict suggests that there is a pending war.
The collapsed scoop left metastases, which looked like a military way to solve it is impossible. In fact, architect, Manager and executor of conflicts and wars, has always been Russia. In the arena of future wars, always and unmistakably show that the Russian military base. If the base is, then war is a matter of time. Russia controls the degree of intensity of the conflict, since its military is fully in control of the situation in a particular region. Know Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan. All these countries lost parts of their territory, in combat with the Russian army. This is a temporary, but very painful, though, and indicative of the phenomenon. Already second generation citizens of those countries are brought up on reality, where Russia is a cruel and despicable enemy.
As for Karabakh, there is only Russia makes surprise appearance over the ownership of this region. The rest of the world recognizes this enclave of the territory of Azerbaijan, occupied by Armenia, and in fact – Russia. The inevitability of a fight is dictated by several factors. The most basic, Azerbaijan is gradually becoming a strong, economically and militarily, the country. Armenia, sank to the bottom of poverty and is a corrupt, nationalistic reservation, managed to completely spoil relations with all its neighbours. On its territory are not produced anything valuable, and through it does not pass any important communications between the different regions of Transcaucasia. All communications pass by this piece of land. From this it follows that the liberation of Azerbaijan on their territories – a matter of time.
Two decades, Azerbaijan was engaged in the creation of the new army, equipping its relatively good Arsenal of weapons and in the end, created the armed forces, which in principle is able to solve the Karabakh issue. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan for a long time did not dare to proceed to the practical implementation of this task for two reasons. The first reason is the presence in Armenia of Russian troops and a common border with Russia. That is, under certain circumstances, was likely to get a shot of Russian troops from the North. The second reason is the dramatic changes of relations with the main regional partner is Turkey. Being close peoples, with related languages and shared history, the country has built a close relationship, but Turkey has always warned Azerbaijan against military solution of the Karabakh issue. Then, Ankara had a very powerful relationship with Russia and did not want to become before selecting a telephone, in case of war. On this basis even has been a significant cooling of relations between the partners.
In one of the materials that describe the active phase of the fighting in Syria, we have suggested that if Turkey will raise the flag as a regional leader on cleaning Syria from Assad and ISIS, then very soon the turn comes to Karabakh. The presence of frozen conflicts may not be on hand, neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan, nor the second region. This is just Moscow. However, Turkey has left for the USA the priority of the solution of the Syrian issue, Karabakh and simply could not arise at the initiative of Turkey, and hence of Azerbaijan. Time has not yet come.
This means that the initiator of resumption of hostilities has become the opposite side, which is Russia. Talking about independent politics, and especially in military Affairs, Armenia makes no sense. Yerevan is an absolute puppet of the Kremlin, which could not move without orders from Moscow. This applies to even small issues, not to mention military action. In this sense, it's simple. As soon as the EU announced the approval of the plan the southern corridor, providing supplies of Azerbaijani and Turkmen gas and then to Europe, the question of the beginning of the mess in the Caucasus was decided. The only thing that confused in this scheme, is that the two TVD in Ukraine and Syria. Only absolutely sick and divorced from reality the figure could designate another HPT and all pipelines! As it turned out, grandfather Kabaev already quite friendly with the head and began demonstrating the strength for one direction.
But the fact that kneading could go wrong scenario that was outlined. Azerbaijan has long been ready to implement their plans for the liberation of the territories. An hour ago, he would have done on your own risk, because for the Armenian backs are Russian military, but now the situation is changing. Turkey ceased to be the emergency brake, and immediately behind it the coalition of the Gulf. There can be different options. This is despite the fact that Armenia has no common border with Russia and in case of major events, with logistics there will be a huge problem. Such problems of Azerbaijan.
How will the events develop we will see. Azerbaijan will satisfy even the preservation of the Status Quo, as will be demonstrated, the reaction of the Kremlin to any tricks, so plugged another gas pipe. Although who knows, maybe the Azeris do not miss the chance.
Source: http://defence-line.org/
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