The possibility of supplying defensive weapons to Ukraine for several months is being discussed in Europe and the USA. Western partners was limited to the imposition of economic sanctions against Russia, the provision of humanitarian assistance and military equipment. The decision on the allocation of lethal weapons is still pending.

In an interview with “ГОРДОН”  the Head of the International Secretariat on security and civil cooperation between Ukraine and NATO, the former head of the SBU and the defense Ministry, General Yevhen Marchuk believes that the reason for the sluggishness of Western leaders is the risk of escalation of military tension in Donbas, as well as nuclear blackmail by Russia.

"The country that has guaranteed our sovereignty, have left Ukraine alone with an armed to the teeth embittered Russia"

– Despite pressure from senators, the U.S. President agreed to give Ukraine drones and armored vehicles. Does this mean that America has denied Ukraine in real military support?

– The U.S. government practically made the decision on this issue. Thank you for this assistance.

I think direct military aid, neither the U.S. nor Europe will not have. Lethal weapon is unlikely to give. Russia just wants a reaction. First, the decision will not be secret, and the Russians immediately send to Ukraine a few squads to capture the samples.

Secondly, if the USA will take the decision to transfer us lethal weapons (antitank and antiaircraft), Russia will take advantage of this guidance to justify a massive delivery of new weapons to the conflict zone. The logic is simple: if America increases the Ukraine, therefore, Russia must strengthen itself. Of course, this is fiction. After all, Russia already invaded the Donbass different types of the most modern offensive weapons. Not all NATO countries have such an amount of military equipment, as the militants “DND” and “LNB”.

– The US does not want to risk, Europe is afraid that NATO could not act without the decision of politicians. The guarantees of the Budapest Memorandum turned out to be an empty promise. Then what to do?

– Indeed, it's hard to understand, even somehow insulting that the signatories to the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing our sovereignty, now in a military sense have left Ukraine alone with an armed to the teeth and angry Russia.

Has everyone forgotten that the giant 43-I army strategic missile forces of the USSR located in Ukraine, was aimed at the US? And it's almost 1.5 thousand nuclear warheads each – 30 Herosim. Under the guarantee of the United States, we all this huge threat dismantled. Nuclear weapons transferred to Russia in exchange for fuel for nuclear power plants. And what got in return? Fear the USA and Germany, so, Oh, don't provoke Russia! And this despite the fact that she openly pumps Donbass superlearner offensive weapons, killing more Ukrainian soldiers.

Wouldn't that get us all this right not just ask but demand to help of lethal weapons to repel the Russian aggression?

Marchuk: Not all NATO countries have such an amount of military equipment, as the militants “DND” and “LNB” Photo: Tatiana Dinekina

I have a glimmer of hope that managed to find a solution during the visit of President Poroshenko at a military show in UAE. We have the right to buy what you want. It is very expensive, but you have to use all the features.

"We have seriously prepared for a new outbreak of the Russian military activity and concepts: to fight for us, no one will"

The Baltic States, which are sharper than the other felt the danger, the UK and the US, I think, will support us further, even if you change the top officials in those States.

But there is another Europe, which is tired of the confrontation. Big business loses money, that means jobs and the electorate to win elections. It is at this fatigue and calculates Putin.

The Russians know how corrupt different environment in Europe. We see how Putin's team gradually eroding European consolidation on the Ukrainian question. They already have achieved a lot, judging by the reaction of Hungary, Greece, and even Germany. Already German foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier spoke about the need to comply with strategic patience in the negotiations on the Donbass, and the President of France Francois Hollande said that France is against Ukraine's accession to NATO.

The West is redefining the relationship with the Russian Federation. I think we are approaching a new strategy for NATO. Russia will soon feel the extra pressure and in economic, and in military-strategic terms.

– March 11, Russia finally withdrew from the Treaty on conventional armed forces in Europe (CFE). Will this affect the decision on the course of military operations on Donbass?

– The decision to enter the Russian Federation adopted back in 2007, I declared to the world. It was a signal that the West is not decoded. An hour later there was a war with Georgia and annexation of its territory. The West and swallowed it. Based on the fact that Russia in 2014-2015 destroyed the whole system of global security, nothing sensational in this fact, Western leaders, I think, will see.

I'm in this for more information see the devil the signal. Russia began the process of withdrawal from the CFE Treaty before the war with Georgia. Isn't the fact the final output omen of a new stage of Russian aggression against Ukraine?

The chagrin of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg about any impact on Russia's behavior will not appear. She goes further. From the Russian foreign Ministry has already heard hints about a possible withdrawal from the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The West is still unable to develop an effective technology of non-military coercion of Russia to the world. So we need seriously preparing for another burst of Russian military activity and concepts clearly: to fight for us, no one will.

"Putin can only be stopped by inappropriately large losses in manpower and technology. You lethal defensive weapons"

– Authorities prepared an appeal with a request about sending peacekeepers into Ukraine the EU and the UN. This will help to deter Russian aggression?

The appeal concerning the peacekeeping force is normal idea, but not for fast implementation. Even if a positive decision, the peacemakers will arrive not earlier than November. This is the procedure. A prerequisite for sending the mission – the consent of both parties. Russia defiantly disagrees and believes that the deployment of the international peacekeeping force is a departure from the Minsk agreements.

Police mission of the European Union may arrive faster, although the process of taking and implementing decisions is also very difficult. It should be noted, if Putin decides to break land corridor to the Crimea, no peacekeepers will not stop him. It can only be stopped by inappropriately large losses in manpower and technology. And for this we need a lot of lethal defensive weapons, updated tactics and strategy of the Armed forces of Ukraine.

Marchuk: If Putin decides to break land corridor to the Crimea, the peacekeepers will not stop him. Photo: empamil.eu

– If an input of peacekeeping forces will not lead to the liberation of Donbass, what will happen to the region in the foreseeable future?

– Russia from the Donbass in the near future will not go away. It is a lot of effort and money spent, mastered the region in the military-operational sense. There is practically fully formed enclave. Until then, while in Russia will not be a change of political leadership, I think nothing will be solved.

We have to take the unpleasant decision: what it's for education – Donetsk-Luhansk enclave. Let's see how today, March 17, the Verkhovna Rada will accept a presidential draft law on special order of local self-government in the occupied areas of the two regions.

Being in the soul by extremists, we must become pragmatic, to make the most of the possible. The situation is dramatic: in fact carried out the boundary between “DND” – ”LNB” and the rest of Ukraine. Even if you imagine that the fighting will stop and peace is established, it will not be Transnistria. The situation is much more complicated, with an open border with Russia and another level of conflict, a different involvement of world leaders and other the crux of the problem.

The Russians like the Donbas is not needed. Putin wants it to be Ukrainian land, but as a springboard for the permanent blackmail of Ukraine, when the Russian Federation it will be necessary.

I would advise the country's leadership to begin the development of strategy and tactics of our actions in relation to this region.

– Should Ukraine for the sake of peace to listen to the demand of Russia on preservation of the neutral status?

– Return to non-aligned status should not be, as if the RF on this insisted. Putin has long said that Ukraine is nedogosudarstvo. He wants to destroy the country.

Each of our attempt to strengthen the Euro-Atlantic area will be used for various provocations. However, if we at his request change the Constitution and introduce the non-aligned status, for the Europeans it will be a clear signal: Ukraine agreed to be in the fairway of Russia.

We 23 were non-aligned and received Russian aggression. We have no second choice but to join the system of collective security. It provides the only organisation in Europe – NATO.

"The President of Ukraine should organize a closed seminar on "the Oligarchs of Ukraine and war", and an ego the Secretary-General to appoint the head of the National anti-corruption Bureau"

Politicians always argue, introduces or not martial law. What do you think?

– There is no single answer. There is a populist level evaluation of the pros and cons. Yes, the economy is translated to the military sphere, injected with various restrictions... But that's not the limit, and the state of the economy. No efficient army is impossible without economic base, its resources are quickly being depleted.

Many fear requisition in favor of the state of premises and vehicles. But we must understand that this is not necessarily, temporary, and involves compensation. According to the law on martial law, the Parliament took the decision as a whole, and very clearly prescribes that it is limited.

It is not enough to impose martial law, a lot needs to change in government and in society in General. To make a decision, we must hold honest deep analysis of domestic resource, on the understanding that Western countries will help us (diplomatically and economically), but with the knowledge that Russia will behave even more aggressively.

Marchuk: it is almost time that everyone is under martial law at home and at work. Photo: Tatiana Dinekina

In the international sphere, the leadership of the country, mainly operates correctly. And personally Poroshenko crashes all the Ministry of foreign Affairs. Only serious mistake that many embassies without ambassadors. When the Ambassador is not sent, in the diplomatic language this is saying something, usually something bad.

Within the country need to mobilize the whole resource with the given non-peaceful time. The government and the President need to do the homework for the correction of internal social and economic policies.

– What do you mean by homework?

– There is an urgent need to deal with our internal resource. One component of this resource is the consolidation of the nation. The Maidan and subsequent events showed that we had a big not used potential. But public consolidation may deteriorate under the influence of socio-economic problems that already have in the country today.

You must stop any hint of a normal limit criticism of the authorities. The government should be as open and clear for the citizens what is happening in the country, and not once in 100 days.

People have a lot of concepts, but not all are ready to accept and forgive. Ahead of us is a very complex process. You can't give up. We can pass it, we are a nation: long we harness, but quickly go. The capacity of Ukrainians is high, and the resource is to using international partners to confront Russia. To resist so she went to his home.

The President and his administration need to look for new public and unofficial language for conversation with the participants of the political process. We need to explain: if we are going to squabble, it will fail for all. And then – organizes personal work. May be it is worth to remind, who became a millionaire or billionaire.

I think when the President of Ukraine would cost to organize a closed workshop “the Ukrainian Oligarchs and war”, and an ego the Secretary-General to appoint the head of the National anti-corruption Bureau. The agenda there were no problems.

"I have a hunch that in the near future can be hot in Kharkiv and Chernihiv directions"

Now Russia openly supplies the Donbass lot of military equipment, including heavy and offensive. We understand that she wants a corridor to Crimea. So, under the threat of Mariupol. But I have a hunch that in the near future can be hot in Kharkiv and Chernihiv directions.

– Kharkiv constantly reeling, but in Chernigov quite calmly. Where are the fears?

The most frightening point. In the Chernigov area – hand to submit to Kiev, about 200 kilometers.

My friend is a border in the Chernihiv region. An hour ago the Russians warned them: you'll see a certain signal, keep in mind that we have orders, and we, sorry, will do.

Of course, I don't believe that the Russians will go to Kiev. Although... lately I catch myself thinking that says: I don't think, I don't believe. No one imagined that Russia might go for a forceful annexation of Crimea and war in Donbass, killing our citizens, to sabotage. And because Putin once said that I could and to Kiev to walk, and to Warsaw, nothing cannot be ruled out.

Kharkiv and Odessa remain the object of Russian subversive activity and may begin a more complex situation. For further confrontation need of well-trained and armed regular army. And, of course, unified command.

In the army it is necessary to filter staff and to weed out those who are lazy or was incapacitated in modern conditions. And all new commanders and well-proven volunteers skips through modern military science.

– Some experts have suggested that to dismiss senior military leadership that will clean the ranks of the traitors. This will help to increase the effectiveness of the Ukrainian army?

– Total resignation – the easiest method. But in our case this can not be done, because we act in military terms.

It was suggested miss everyone through a lie detector. Of course, the one who prepared easily fool any polygraph, but for intimidation is a good method.

The process of purification in the armed forces and the security services will occur. But the Russian side will continue to look for ways of recruiting and purchasing sources at all levels of the military leadership. The main thing is to note that much of great value to the enemy always represents the Agency in various spheres of the political leadership of the country, because the military run by politicians.

Smart agent of influence surrounded by people taking important state decisions can be to the enemy is much more effective than the warlord high level. To identify such an agent is much more difficult.

Fair the hype around Russian agents among the military ousted from the public consciousness whiter dangerous problem – the Russian agents of influence in the political sphere. There are many complex problems. For example, can SBU to conduct a search of counter-intelligence work among the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, presidential Administration, Cabinet of Ministers... On the sound logic of war – Yes.

"Putin's plan: to convince the West that Ukraine is historically justified the zone of Russian interests and without the participation of the Russian Federation to change anything in that region, no one will succeed"

– As an analyst, you understand the essence of the game, which is Putin?

– You don't think some of our media and politicians the last two years “gave” Putin's role as a tough, but short-sighted leader of the international sanctions now would drive to a standstill. It was a mistake.

Russia has one of the world's most powerful intelligence information and analytical machines. It all works for Putin as his nearest team – people with whom he was together for at least 15 years (the government, law enforcement agencies, the security Council, the presidential administration, Parliament). This is a powerful group, close-knit not only a long service links, but also joint the sinfulness of war with Ukraine.

We see only the tip of the activities of Putin, so sometimes it seems like he makes impromptu. In fact, this machine is all carefully prepared, reconnoiters, predicts and acts according to the developed plans.

The signs of the strategic plan of the special operation in Ukraine was manifested even before the annexation of the Crimea, when the Russian Federation began a series of large-scale military exercises near our borders. The first phase of the Crimean operation in Russia is almost completely repeated the same operation in Crimea in 1992 and 1994.

Putin: All my colleagues, and there were four of them, said that the situation in Ukraine has developed in such a way that we are forced to start work on return of Crimea in structure of Russia. We can't leave this territory and the people who live there, adrift, under the roller nationalists. And set certain tasks, said and how we should do. Screenshot video “Crimea. The path to the Family” / russia.tv

The idea of Putin are basically clear: to harrass, to weaken and break up Ukraine. Tightly to block the possibility of its accession to NATO. To convince the West and primarily the USA that Ukraine is historically justified the zone of Russian interests and without the participation of the Russian Federation to change anything in this region, none will not work.

The economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, is too flaccid argument for the Russian President?

– No economic sanctions Putin is not afraid. On the contrary, they help him keep the entire political elite in check and increase your ranking. In his understanding, it is a global player, the head of the nuclear countries, even though economically weak, but geographically large, with a huge armed forces. Putin suggests to Obama, Merkel and Hollande that a couple of years they get re-elected, and he will be the President as much as you want. He can wait because he allegedly had a greater margin of safety and a different scale of time measurement.

“Want me to lock, to make an outcast? Do. But you will not solve anything without me” – that's the main message of Putin. He was prepared to be an outcast. They say that even divorced, so that no one pressures him through loved ones.

His most important argument – nuclear weapons. To demonstrate their audacious confidence, Putin sends to the NATO bombers, submarines. He probed the entire perimeter of the Alliance, and even to the West coast of the US sent strategic bombers with benzozapravke.

I think he will continue to show everyone that he is leading the global game, and world leaders without it will not solve anything.

In this context, the recent interview of Yanukovych and Azarov on the Central Russian channels. Yanukovych was not strategic motives in an interview and Azarov were. He announced the message of the Russian establishment, making a hint of a second Yalta. Remember, at the end of the Second world war at the meeting in the Crimea leaders of the allies arbitrarily divided the world. Then these bounds become quite real.

Now it is obvious that Ukraine, being a member of the global problems already is not a major player. Hence the behavior of Putin in Minsk, long talks and agreement that he wasn't going to sign. When viewed as a whole, these agreements was a gain for Russia.

– Trip to Minsk is nothing Ukraine gave?

– First and second Minsk talks big with nothing decided. This does not mean that they are bad at all. There are estimates of the tactical and strategic level. For example, the exchange of prisoners – is a tactical joy. But in the strategic plan of the Minsk agreements, especially the latter, despite the seeming positivity of big Ukraine gave nothing. Our country has shown the world that it complies with the agreement, but Russia has not.

Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that he doesn't care about any agreements. He went on undermining security in Europe, the Budapest Memorandum. Any arrangements in Minsk for him is worthless.

It is now evident that the format of the European Quartet will give nothing. We need the Geneva format with the participation of the United States. But the moment is lost. I had to insist on a change of format before the trip to Minsk, where Putin was unprecedented pressure.

"The Kharkiv agreement of April 2010, without doubt, were part of the diabolical plan for the annexation of the Crimea"

– Judging by your words, Russia had already tried to take the Crimea in the early 1990-ies. How I managed to cope with aggression?

– If we had not blocked the military component, and the operation could result in seizure of the Peninsula. Started with festival of the Kuban Cossacks in Simferopol in 1993: all the Cossacks youthful, trimmed and obey the elder. Local political parties were involved for the lifting of anti-Ukrainian sentiments.

Joined the black sea fleet (BSF) of the Russian Federation, which had its own media – radio, TV, Newspapers. Military bases around the world is hosted locally, fenced, and in Sevastopol military structure of the BSF-integrated into civilian life. The BSF had a military intelligence and counterintelligence, who had the whole situation in the Crimea.

Then there was the capture of the SEC and the dissolution of the Supreme Council of the Crimea. President Yuri Meshkov. Few people know that the government headed by then had arrived from Russia by a man named Sabur. And one of his closest aides was an employee of the Russian special services Minin. When they started preparing the seizure of the SBU, we had to parachute in Crimea. The late General Gubenko, who was the chief of the border troops of Ukraine, has helped us secretly at low altitude helicopters to get to the Peninsula. The operation was headed by my Deputy, Valery Malikov. We managed the night before to take possession of the building. It was for all a surprise, even for the head of the Crimean SBU. When he came to work, he met Kiev “alpha”.

To a certain extent to keep Crimea in the 1990s, we have helped and what the President was Yeltsin. Despite the incredible difficulty, we then managed without blood to divide the black sea fleet. Were very acute episodes, a few times we were close to the use of weapons, but nothing happened.

Marchuk participated in the talks with Yeltsin on the division of the black sea fleet and, as a Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, in 1995 signed a Treaty of friendship, cooperation and partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Photo: Yevhen Marchuk / Facebook

I called President Kravchuk and said that give a telegram to Moscow, and warned that he would call Yeltsin. The telegram was sharp, to deter the Russians. I warned that we are going to delay Russian soldiers arrive in Crimea without prior approval from the Ukrainian side. Kravchuk said “normal telegram”. And later that night he called and said that really rang Yeltsin and complained about: what's your Chairman of the SBU is doing – going of our military in Crimea to hold.

"No wonder mine foreman, Muscovite Salamatin moved to Ukraine and became a member of the Party of regions, and then the Minister of defence. Now in Moscow he's an Advisor to Putin"

 – In the film “Crimea. The way the Family” Putin said that the decision on the seizure of the Peninsula was taken just a few days...

– Special operation on the annexation of Crimea was preparing for a long time, and especially meticulously during the presidency of Yanukovych. No wonder mine foreman by trade, Muscovite Dmitry Salamatin moved from Moscow to Ukraine, received in 2005 the citizenship. In 2010 he became a member of the Party of regions and immediately was appointed head of the “UkrSpetsExport”, in 2011 – head of the state concern “Ukroboronprom”, and a year later Minister of defence of Ukraine. After returning to Moscow, Salamatin has naturally become the adviser of Putin.

His “case” continued the native of Krasnodar territory, the Crimean businessman Pavel Lebedev, Yanukovych appointed the Minister of defence in December 2012. February 21, 2014, after the shooting of the Heavenly hundred, he escaped from Kiev to Sevastopol and six days remained in the status of the Minister with full powers. At this time, from 23 to 27 February, there was a violent change of government of Sevastopol and began the visible part of a special operation of Russia on the annexation of Crimea.

In the context of the understanding of preparations for the annexation of Crimea and fit one more appointment. In the summer of 2012 Yanukovych appointed commander of the Ukrainian Navy, the former commander of separate brigade of sea infantry of Yuri Ilyin, and an hour later awarded him the rank of Admiral. A February 19, 2014, the day before the shooting of the Heavenly hundred on the Maidan, Yanukovych appointed him the chief of the General staff – Commander-in-chief of the Armed forces of Ukraine. His signature under the plan to maintain the state of emergency in the country. It is on the Internet. Ilyin also disappeared in the Crimea and, as the Minister of defence Lebedev, by 28 February in the status of Commander-in-chief of VSU was in Sevastopol.

These facts are a small component of a long preparation to the annexation of Crimea by Russia. Other indicators of the special operation will soon be known more. Now I can only say that the so-called Kharkiv agreement of April 2010, without doubt, were part of this diabolical plan. Remember, how did the ratification of the Association agreement in the Verkhovna Rada, who and how to provide for her. This decision legalized the stay of the BSF of Russia in Ukraine almost to 2047, and was granted the right to complete modernization of the entire infrastructure and armament of the fleet. As you know, immediately after the annexation of Crimea, Russia denounced the agreement.

"If the Russian military and mercenaries can cold-bloodedly kill our soldiers, and the population of Russia supports this, so in the foreseeable future we will have a huge neighbor-the enemy"

Everything that happened in 2014-2015 brings us to important conclusions. First: the West (USA, Europe, NATO) were not ready for such a behavior of Russia in the face of Putin.

Second: the Ukrainians were naive and too trusting, believing that Russia's aggression could be stopped with the Budapest Memorandum. There was an expectation that Europe and America may so seriously affect the situation, that you would be able to block Russia. Did not work.

Third, unpleasant, but valuable conclusion, what hope do we have on our own strength.

And finally: there is no brotherly people. The Russians can kill us. In Russia a lot of good people who support Ukraine. But this does not affect the behavior of Putin.

If we repeatedly convinced that Russian soldiers and mercenaries can cold-bloodedly kill our soldiers, and the population of the Russian Federation it supports, and the West cannot effectively counter it (although it tries), so in the foreseeable future we will have a huge neighbor-the enemy. And we all without exception need to learn to live with the neighbor.

Elena Poskannaja

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