Despite the fact that Putin pointedly announced the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Syria, the Pentagon has not seen large-scale reduction of Russian troops in the region.

According to the Americans, it was a hoax designed to buy time for Assad before the large-scale talks on Syria. At the same time, advance elements of the U.S. and Turkey are already on Syrian territory, but has gone unnoticed.

However while these units are limited to the coordination of the onset of the Syrian opposition and adjust air strikes and artillery of the coalition, but soon things can change. The Kremlin is in Syria, and in Ukraine in a completely unattractive position. On March 17 Britain has signed a Memorandum of military cooperation with Ukraine. At the same time the U.S. is ready to allocate in 2016 on military subjects to the Ukrainian partners are more than 300 million U.S. dollars. Including modern means of combating tanks and MANPADS and sniper equipment.

Latest protivogrippoznye complexes brought and Britain.

This advanced system, equipped ouderdom and ballistic calculator, which allow you to make sniping the enemy at a distance up to 1800 meters, pinpointing their location. And these systems are already tested at the front in the area ATO. Applying in the complex with anti-tank weapons, they are very effective, at the same time without violating the terms of the truce, according to the Minsk agreements.

Simple tactics APU – strikes on the enemy's high-precision anti-tank weapons and sniper systems, knocking them on the first line of their defense. It was effective only for the period from 10 to 15 March in Russia exported approximately 60 bodies of Russian soldiers. How many were thus killed militants are not precisely known. In the case of large-scale use of such tactics, the losses of militants and Russian military only during 2016 may will ripen more than 3000 people in case of continued attempts to attack Ukrainian units. To this is added the modern intelligence capabilities of the APU, communications and new artillery, which is always at the ready. Air defense of Ukraine has increased almost 2 times compared to the summer of 2014. 1.5 times increased aviation group APU. Assessment of the General staff of VSU, it makes losses up to 1,000 Russian troops during the first-second weeks, in case of resumption of full hostilities in the Donbass.

In Syria the situation is even worse. The fact that there are in a grouping about 5,000 Russian soldiers, whose only allies are exhausted Assad's army, confronts a well-armed anti-Assad groups. This is in addition to the anti-asadowskij opposition in the North, a major force ISIL and Kurdish opposition. And now it seems likely that the Turkish special forces.Thus “the feint ears” of Putin when he was under the slogans of the termination of operations in Syria, though most of the group ventured to leave, can result at least in large-scale defeat panic and emergency evacuation, but not on paper.

The fact that for the last two weeks the Russian losses were about 10 troops of special forces of Russia on the territory of Syria. But large-scale attack on Assad's forces has not yet been made, although from the beginning of March the opposition forces celebrated the mass appearance quite modern MANPADS, with which in March was hit by two aircraft. Marked and shelling Russian T90 modern tandem missiles TOW ATGM in Aleppo.

The Kremlin remained virtually alone with the enemy, because Assad's army is in a state of apathy, Iran withdrew its units, and the loss of Hezbollah up to 50% of the staff. The last offensive of the ISIS has allowed this terrorist power to seize large quantities of weapons and ammunition in acadsci forces. Also started the disassembly and consultant in asadowskij forces in the area of Damascus rebelled tank brigade, which refused to obey Assad.

Thus the Kremlin can get in Syria is not only a large-scale collapse of the front, but no less ambitious “stab in the back” that disoriented disintegrating forces in Damascus, followed by the rapid retreat and evacuation of the Russian army, but according to the analysts in this case, the loss of the Russian forces can reach up to 50% of the staff, because the only channel emergency evacuation may be only coast, and the sky will be closed – the opposition now is 30 kilometers from the main airport – Latakia. I need to add to and inevitable loss when you try to unlock skills before the evacuation, the loss of the Russian staff in Damascus to revolt if individual military units-Assad, which there more and more smells.

Thus in the “dramatic” scenario for the Russian armed forces losses EN both theaters of war – in Syria and Ukraine may ripen 7000 – 8000 until the end of 2016. In fact, this whole Afghanistan within one hour. But let's hope that the Kremlin would be smart enough to get out of Syria and to fully implement the Minsk agreement.

Victor Shevchuk. Russian Jewish.

Source: http://rusjev.net/

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