It is interesting sometimes to put together some at first sight unrelated events. Even more interesting to assess their impact. Not individually and the total. In politics is not direct (the achievement of the objectives that were mentioned earlier), and that any change in the General alignment of forces they lead.
It is interesting sometimes to put together some at first sight unrelated events. Even more interesting to assess their impact. Not individually and the total. In politics is not direct (the achievement of the objectives that were mentioned earlier), and that any change in the General alignment of forces they lead.
It is interesting sometimes to put together some at first sight unrelated events. Even more interesting to assess their impact. Not individually and the total. In politics is not direct (the achievement of the objectives that were mentioned earlier), and that any change in the General alignment of forces they lead.
It is interesting sometimes to put together some at first sight unrelated events. Even more interesting to assess their impact. Not individually and the total. In politics is not direct (the achievement of the objectives that were mentioned earlier), and that any change in the General alignment of forces they lead.
Here and now. In the electronic media actively replicated the words Yatsenyuk on expanding the list of sanctions. Including restrictions on flights of "Aeroflot" and "Transaero". But I rezanulo hearing another phrase that followed — strengthen control to prevent the transit of military goods and dual-use goods. By land and by air.
Began to compare the facts. And surprised myself – it seems that the Ukrainian leadership made a very, very good move. Or, given the number of events in the previous months, played a beautiful attacking move. What am I doing? Let's compare together.
Introductory to "September theses" Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk
The situation around the Ukrainian events, which has occurred in recent months can hardly be called optimistic. Here are just a few factors
International environment. Slow Ukrainian revolution gave rise to slow Ukrainian reforms. Which turned out to be very slow. This summer is already beginning to mildly irritate key external partners. There were just a few signals of the "last Chinese warning" for official Kiev. Of course, all the "leaks" were refuted. But it didn't change the change the balance of forces — and the EU and the US are rather tired from talking about reform. Instead of "let's talk" they wait "but let me show you what happened."
The war in the Donbas and "Minsk agreement". Everything is simple — a local conflict in the active phase did not need anyone. Ukraine failed to provide its agenda (possibly due to objective reasons — such level of participation of the Russian Federation was not expected, maybe just unable). That's not the point. The contract is. The pressure on the Russian Federation. There is a desire to "freeze the conflict" in any "contract" scenario.
Sanctions against the Russian Federation. Taking this into account at PP. 1 and 2 as well as fatigue from the "Ukrainian question" part of the EU's louder claims about the futility of pressure on the Kremlin. If at the end of 2014 these statements were heard from "political dwarfs", today they speak very influential people.
Starts the internal political crisis in Moldova. You can argue "there's the hand of Moscow". But the fact remains — Russia is closely watching events. Don't forget that the Association agreement was signed and Chisinau.
Russia and itself not against to leave-under sanctions. And their cancellation in this situation is the triumph of the "spirit of the Budapest Memorandum" — the world popesmashers and "will remember" what the Russian are prone to aggression. Also remember as remembered about the occupation of the Baltic States of the USSR. That is to say "Oh yeah..." but sometimes close an eye on the foreign policy maneuvers of the Kremlin.
The movement begins on the "implementation of the Minsk agreements". But not the way I wanted Kiev — paragraph by paragraph, and mosaic. This means that Ukraine performs all the other side that at this point will be beneficial. Alas, in Kiev, in this situation, room for manoeuvre is quite narrow. Why – see above.
Such events naturally cause political tensions within the Ukrainian society. And yet, as luck would have it, the election campaign.
In short, the situation for the official Kiev – could not be worse. Internal resources to win a little. External support weakens with each passing month. The Kremlin starts the "freezing" of the conflict in the Donbass. And quite dramatically and effectively. But in their scenario. The calculation is simple — hang on Ukraine, "DNR" and "LNR". And thus, as they say in Russian proverb "by hook or by crook" to achieve the preservation of the status of Ukraine as a strange state with a strange system of government and an inefficient economy. That basically all he needs.
And here we come to the response of the Ukrainian authorities. The essence of the processes in the famous phrase, "it's not only what you do, but when you do".
The constituent parts of the mosaic, the September theses of Ukraine
This year drew attention to several interesting steps of official Kiev. At first glance they have nothing in common with the current situation. But today these factors play an important role. Here are some of them:
1. At the turn of 2014-2015 Poroshenko change the heads of regional administrations. And most importantly, the district. And unevenly. In some areas the percentage of refresh rates greater than 90%. On the one hand, this game can be used against the "coalition partners". On the other — later.
2. The head of Odessa region appointed Mikhail Saakashvili. Which, as expected, are engaged in updating of the management areas. And entered into the swordplay with customs officials.
Including after loud statements of the Georgian inhabitant of Odessa, the Ukrainian authorities began the customs. This tariff unification. And, including "planned" the purge
3. Imperceptibly and the state of Ukraine and the U.S. and the EU gave a bunch of equipment to Ukrainian border guards. And somehow much of the equipment "settled" in the units of the southern regional administration. So much so that their security dramatically jumped from 50-60% of the minimum required to 90-95%. This is but one example. In the summer there were additional gifts from the EU. Closer to autumn from United States. By the way, there were angry voices on "Trad" — supposedly given to the East and in Odessa, and (horror of horrors!) in Vinnytsia region.
4. Ukraine tells EU diplomats that begins to prepare its sanctions package against Russia. Say we thought about it and realized that "Ukraine must join the sanctions
And then a few events that occurred since the 20s of August.
1. President enacts NSDC decision on sanctions. Where, among other things, spelled out strange paragraph on the prohibition of transit of military goods and dual-use goods through the territory of the country
2.Crimean Tatars start blockade of the Crimea. And create a platform for the diplomatic game of Kiev.
3. The Cabinet of Ministers is considering the question of extending sanctions. And the Russian Federation informs that soon the company "Aeroflot" and "Transaero" will not be able to fly in Ukraine.
At first glance, unrelated events. But having formed in one picture they provide a lot of sleepless nights. In the first place for the President of the Russian Federation. As well as for MS Merkel, Mr Hollande and. And here's why:
1. Blockade Of The Crimea. On this subject I will not speak — wrote a couple of days ago. BUT the ability to play "DND Vice versa" on the one hand returns the question of the annexation of the Peninsula in the negotiating agenda (s reminiscent of European friends of the Russian Federation which sanctions were imposed). And forcing Russia to seek common ground, and the first to make concessions to Kiev.
2. Transit. This is the key word. Where Russia may chase vehicles through the territory of Ukraine? That's right, in Transnistria. Kiev on one side banned the transit. With the other threw from his sky Russian companies having regular flights (including cargo). Transnistria and suddenly found himself in a rather difficult situation. Because the dual-use items, if desired, can be attributed to diesel fuel (for tanks), field rations for the military and just the winter form. Not to mention the cars, technology and much more. Thus Russia loses the ability to maintain one "hot spot". And thereby reduces their possibilities to intervene in the political cuisine of Moldova.
The situation is very serious. We are talking about "normal" trading of the PMR. Most threads went through Ukraine. And the majority was formally smuggling — not all of TMR on a 100% pure from the point of view of the legislation of Moldova. But here's the problem —updated Ukrainian custom. The leaders of the frontier areas changed. And if to speak about the main directions of trade of Transnistria — Vinnitsa and Odessa. One area is the Barony of Clinton. The second was headed by a Very Evil Georgians. A "guerrilla trail" across the border was closed — no wonder the border guards so much the technique sketched.
Of course Putin could try to solve the problem of supply at least of its military through the airlines of third countries. But those can be either Kazakhstan or Belarus. To fly from Central Asia to put it mildly not very cheap. Belarus? The question here is second nature. Secrets of supply. Lukashenko is silent until it is profitable. And in the case of Ukraine already was a sudden "Oh" — draining Kiev of plans for the movement of troops in 2014.
Naturally, the PMR is not suddenly going to fall. But winter is coming. The same military needs to be changed. Hungry civil "about Russian the most" fed and warm. Without Ukrainian transit is impossible in principle. More precisely possible — as soon as the PMR will no longer be a "Republic" and will become an ordinary region of Moldova.
Here we receive that Ukraine has created a massive problem for the Kremlin. And this at a time when foreign players are aggressively persuaded Kiev to suicidal step to the progressive and full implementation of its obligations under the Minsk agreement in exchange for "selective" perform his word by the militants and Russia.
The funny thing: to find fault with the actions of Kiev neither Merkel nor Hollande can't.
Blockade? So this is a civil action. Moreover, the action of the indigenous people, which took the Family. The fact that it is "in the spirit" of European values.
Sanctions? So EU leaders were not tired to remind Kyiv that Ukraine trades with Russia. Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are just "fulfilled wishes" these gentlemen-politicians. And the mayor is almost exactly in line with the measures adopted by the EU. Ukraine acceded to the sanctions imposed by the European Union to the Russian Federation for aggression against Ukraine. Than not a demonstration of the European choice.
Probably for Putin or not, the game went according to his rules
Putin in a difficult situation. Moreover, it is new for him. "Former Soviet republics" have not talked with the Kremlin from a position of strength on this scale. Not just responding to the pressure of the Russian Federation and creating their own agenda. And affecting Russian strategic projects in third countries.
The fact that Moscow has nothing to say markedly by the reaction of the Russian media. The overall impression I have is shock. By and large Putin has two options: either try to negotiate peace or to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.
The peace plan while trying to implement. And he is already "in plus" Kiev. Almost immediately after the clearer picture with Ukrainian game:
Putin requests meeting with Obama. He understands that in Ukrainian scenario, the leaders of Germany and France such extras as he did. The idea is simple — to convince the US to "interfere" in Ukraine. What is already fun. Not from the point of view of levers — Obama's more than enough. The key question, "why?".
Gazprom dropped the price of gas for Ukraine and announced that it will not apply the provisions of the contract take-or-pay. And it's symptomatic. For the first time since the existence of the Russian gas monopoly he lowers the price ITSELF and improves the conditions of the transaction for the partner. Without any long negotiations. Although, here, I think the Ukrainians "slept through the flash" could go. On the one hand to negotiate more. And just to make fun of – to make up for 23 years of annual humiliation.
But here's the problem, then Moscow can offer almost nothing. Only serious concessions. And to announce their will be Putin himself, as their proposals. That is, requests. In Ukraine. That for him is more than humiliation. Merkel with Hollande, which in principle would not mind "down brakes" of Ukrainian issues here will not help him. Officially, Kiev is fully and "literally" follow their same recommendations and advice that were expressed a few months earlier.
Speaking about the dialogue with the EU, it should also be noted one peculiarity. Ukraine is at least a partial subjectivity. At least in matters relating to events in (and around) the Republic of Moldova. Including strong trump card for bargaining with Romania (and there are questions are not happy more than enough).
But back to Putin. The peace plan, apparently, is not particularly favorable solution. The second option is even worse. The escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine (as in any point of contact with the "brotherly country") automatically means the collapse of the Minsk agreements. That is, in principle, to the City and need. In addition, the APU is already a bit then and tough to get. But most importantly, the collapse of the "Minsk-2" in this case is the fault of Russia. And this is new sanctions is cancel old. And further movement of the countries of the region to reduce "gas dependence" on Moscow.
And that's death for Putin. Why becomes clear if to look at Russian media. In particular with its RBC rating of the largest companies of the Russian Federation. Here in this resource we read the interesting phrase "the aggregate income of oil companies in 2014 totaled 19.8 trillion rubles, or 35.3% of total revenue of participants of a rating, but net profit — 1,98 trillion rubles, which is 97.7% of the net income.
In simple language — the Russian economy does not exist. 97.7% of profit — extraction and sale of hydrocarbon. Business a little more technologically advanced than the land of amber diggers under Exactly. The essence is — dug — sold smart uncles.
Therefore, take the liberty to assert that the Ukrainian authorities in September drove Putin in Zugzwang. Where as in a fairy tale — the further the scarier.
The question arises: whether it praises Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. Maybe it just happened. I don't judge whether it was a long moremovers. But luck policy to see opportunities and take advantage of them. It turned out to be. And if subsequent events confirm my assumptions — hats off to the current power for a very, very good move.
Look, one combination will work. Look, the authorities will like it. God willing, there will be passion and desire to work hard and effectively. And then Yes, everything will be Ukraine!
Igor Tyshkevich, "Wave"
Source: http://hvylya.net/
МБФ "СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ" / ICF "GLORY TO UKRAINE" / FIB "GLOIRE À L'UKRAINE"
Amusant parfois, la mise en commun de plusieurs sur la première vue ne sont pas liés entre eux par des événements. Encore plus intéressant d'en évaluer les conséquences. Pas individuellement et total. Dans la politique ne directes sur la réalisation des objectifs que озвучивались), et ce, à la façon dont les changements dans l'ensemble des scénarios, les efforts qu'ils mènent.
Ici et maintenant. Dans les MÉDIAS électroniques activement тиражировались mots Iatseniouk sur l'extension de la liste des sanctions. Y compris les restrictions sur les vols d'Aeroflot et Transaero. Mais j'ai резанула la rumeur d'une autre phrase, consécutive — le renforcement du contrôle pour empêcher le transit de produits militaires et de biens à double usage. Par terre et par air.
- Examiner les faits. Et lui-même s'est étonné – il semble que la direction de l'Ukraine a fait de très très bonne course. Ou, compte tenu du nombre d'événements dans les mois précédents, разыграло une excellente многоходовку. Que fais-je? Nous allons comparer ensemble.
Introduction à la «сентябрьским aux thèses de la» Porochenko-Iatseniouk
La situation autour des événements Ukrainiens, qui s'est développée ces derniers mois n'est guère optimiste. Voici quelques facteurs
La situation internationale. Lente révolution ukrainienne a donné naissance à de lentes ukrainiens de la réforme. Qui se sont révélés étaient bien trop lentement. C'est déjà le début de l'été et c'est un euphémisme irriter les principaux partenaires extérieurs. A plusieurs signaux sur un dernier chinois prévention» pour les autorités de Kiev. Naturellement, tous les «fuites» опровергались. Mais cela ne changeait pas modifier l'équilibre des forces et de l'UE et les etats-UNIS ordre fatigué de parler de la pro de la réforme. Au lieu de «parlons» ils attendent des «a nous montrer ce qui est arrivé».
La guerre dans le Donbass et «de Minsk de l'accord». Tout est simple — les conflits locaux dans la phase active de la personne n'a pas eu besoin. L'ukraine n'est pas en mesure de fournir son ordre du jour (peut-être pour des raisons objectives — ce niveau de participation de la fédération de RUSSIE, personne ne s'attendait peut-être ne pouvaient tout simplement pas). N'est pas le cas. Le contrat est. En appuyant sur la fédération de RUSSIE est. Il ya aussi un désir de «geler le conflit» sur n'importe quel «conventionnel» scénario.
Les sanctions à l'égard de la fédération de RUSSIE. Compte tenu de ce qui est dit dans le pp. 1 et 2 ainsi que la fatigue de la «ukrainienne de la question» une partie des politiciens de l'UE de plus en plus fort déclare le désespoir de la pression sur le Kremlin. Si, à la fin de l'année 2014 ces thèses se faisaient entendre de «nains politiques», aujourd'hui, ils s'expriment tout à fait gens influents.
Commence внутриполитический la crise en république de Moldavie. On peut discuter «il y a une main de Moscou». Mais le fait est que la Russie suivait de près les événements. N'oublions pas que l'accord d'Association signé et Chisinau.
La russie elle-même n'est pas contre d'échapper à la sanction. Et de leur annulation dans la situation de la célébration de «l'esprit du mémorandum de Budapest» — le monde повозмущается et «se rappeler» que la RUSSIE est disposée à l'agression. Il suffit de se rappeler comment s'est souvenu de l'occupation des pays Baltes à l'URSS. C'est à dire «ah oui...» mais de lieux de fermer les yeux sur les manœuvres de politique étrangère du Kremlin.
Commence le mouvement de «la mise en œuvre de Minsk, les arrangements.» Mais pas comme ils le souhaitent Kiev — paragraphe par paragraphe, et juxtaposés. C'est de l'Ukraine effectue tous, de l'autre côté que, dans ce moment, lui sera bénéfique. Hélas, près de Kiev, dans cette situation, le champ de manœuvre assez étroite. Pourquoi – voir ci-dessus.
Ces événements provoquent naturellement intérieure de tensions au sein de la société ukrainienne. Et encore, comme par hasard, vient de campagne électorale.
En bref, la situation officielle de Kiev – la pire de ne pas penser. Des ressources internes pour la victoire de peu. Soutien de l'extérieur s'affaiblit chaque mois. Le kremlin commence un mouvement de «gel» du conflit dans le Donbass. Et assez fortement et efficacement. Mais sur son scénario. Le calcul est simple — à accrocher sur l'Ukraine «ДНР» et «ЛНР». Et ainsi, comme dit le proverbe russe «n'est pas le lavage de sorte катаньем» de parvenir à l'état de la persistance de l'Ukraine, comme incompréhensible de l'état, avec incompréhensibles, un système de pouvoir et l'inefficacité de l'économie. En principe, il doit.
Et c'est là que nous arrivons à l'intervention des autorités ukrainiennes. L'essentiel des processus dans sa célèbre phrase «l'essentiel n'est pas seulement ce que tu fais, mais quand tu fais».
Les composantes de la mosaïque ou сентябрьские les thèses de l'Ukraine
Cette année, attira l'attention sur quelques étapes intéressantes officiel de Kiev. À première vue, ils n'ont rien à voir avec cette situation. Mais aujourd'hui, ces facteurs jouent un rôle important. Voici quelques-unes:
1. Au tournant 2014-2015 Porochenko change chefs d'administrations provinciales. Et quoi de plus important, de district. Et de façon inégale. Certains domaines du pourcentage de mise à jour d'images est supérieure à 90%. D'une part, ce jeu peut être utilisé contre «les partenaires de la coalition». Avec l'autre un peu plus tard.
2. Le chef de la région d'Odessa est nommé Mikhaïl Saakachvili. Qui, comme prévu, s'est occupé de la mise à jour des guides quartiers. Et rejoint la sélection avec les douaniers.Notamment après les fortes déclarations géorgien одессита, les autorités ukrainiennes se sont occupés de la douane. C'est et l'unification des tarifs. Et, y compris le «prévu» ressources humaines nettoyage
3. De manière discrète, et l'état de l'Ukraine et les etats-UNIS et l'UE ont remis un tas de techniques aux gardes-frontières ukrainiens. Et de manière discrète, une grande partie de la technique de la «défonce» dans les rangs du Sud de la gouvernance régionale. Oui, de sorte que leur sécurité a fortement grimpé de 50 à 60% du minimum requis jusqu'à 90-95%. Mais c'est un exemple. En été, ont été des cadeaux supplémentaires de l'UE. Proche de tomber des etats-UNIS. D'ailleurs, étaient indignés de la voix sur «зраді» — disent-ils donnent n'est pas sur-orient et d'odessa et (horreur!) dans Винницкую domaine.
4. L'ukraine rend compte des diplomates de l'UE, qui commence à préparer votre la le paquet à l'égard de la Russie. Ce qu'on dit nous avons pensé et compris que «l'Ukraine doit se joindre aux sanctions contre le monde civilisé pour l'agression contre l'Ukraine».
