Decided to bring down this regime – I am convinced of (or "Beginning of the end")
Wrote about this in his Facebook Russian economist, the head of Diamond Age Capital Advisors Slava Rabinovich.
Before I write, as this has been and will be AGAIN, I want to describe what is happening now.
March 1, 2014 the Federation Council voted in favour of secret (until) resolution, which, unknown to all Russian people, Putin prepared, who was at that time in power in Russia for a 15th year, along with his accomplices from the Russian Security Council. In March-may 2014 was carried out "special operation" to seize and Annex Crimea through the introduction of special forces, GRU and FSB, and then began the invasion of Russian troops into Eastern Ukraine, which led to the formation of separatist regions, supported by Moscow. Event has claimed the lives of many thousand people, many other thousands of maimed and disabled for life. From the battlefields of parametros several million refugees. Initial Putin's plan to split Ukraine into two parts failed.
Next to the Russian Federation was followed by international sanctions, isolation, the status of a rogue state", the de facto exclusion from the G-7 and G-20, the collapse of the economy.
All the surrounding country, near Russia, and especially those in which the Russian-speaking population is large, were terribly frightened by these events. Many thought that Russian forces will soon appear at the city of Narva in Estonia. Those countries who were lucky and managed to join NATO, called on the military-political leadership of major countries – members of NATO to reaffirm NATO's commitment to fulfil its obligations under the Charter of the Alliance is "an attack on one NATO member is tantamount to an attack on the entire Alliance." In NATO and in major countries reaffirmed their resolve to defend all its members, regardless of their size and geographical location.
Those countries who have been unlucky and did not manage to join NATO, is even convinced that any of the contracts with Russia are not worth the paper they are written on, and even cheaper is quoted signed on behalf of the Russian Federation. After all, Putin and Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum, a Treaty of friendship and cooperation with Ukraine, many other international multilateral and bilateral treaties, international law, etc. let me Remind you that the Budapest Memorandum was signed between Russia, Ukraine, UK and USA for complete nuclear disarmament of Ukraine, which alleles, at the time, third in the world (!) a country the size of its nuclear military power. Complete nuclear disarmament of Ukraine "exchanged" on the guarantees of its sovereignty and territorial integrity of all other parties to the Treaty. In 2014, the Russian Federation treacherous, brutally and cynically violated the Treaty. It is precedent in modern history of the twenty-first century, leading to two main consequences: (1) no country in the world now voluntarily renounce nuclear weapons under any "guarantees", and (2) any country near Russia would seek to join NATO, if not already a member.
Besides this a precedent for virtually the entire international postwar Europe, for no man ever after the Second world war annexation of foreign territories on the European continent since 1945. Russia broke the world order, the post-war world, and it is unacceptable neither for Europe nor for the USA. Decided to bring down this regime – I am convinced of it.
Russia has never had an active armed confrontation with U.S. forces. Such a potential military conflict, if and when there will be "initiated" by the Russian Federation, will entail considerable US military power, which will be used in a manner befitting the American war machine that someone is attacking. The placement of a limited contingent of U.S. troops in Northern and Eastern Europe is a kind of "insurance" or "insurance", from the attack of the armed forces, whatever they may be – with markings, or without.
Russian political and military leadership rattle, rattles and rattle the saber, more "meddling" in armed inactive (at the moment) confrontation with the world. It cost the Russian budget so much money that the Russian economy will suffer a crushing collapse in a relatively short time – especially considering the other "restrictive measures" in the form of sanctions, de jure, and in the form of excluding Russia from the international financial system, de facto. Russia is involved in "Afghanistan – 2" and "Star wars – 2", and its economy just burst burst last time exactly thirty years ago. The regime will collapse as he collapsed 25 years ago. The Russian Federation would disintegrate, as happened a quarter century ago. Russia will never, never win a confrontation with the G-7 and NATO, as it did not work for the USSR.
On June 13 the New York Times reported that the Pentagon intends to send to the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic States heavy weapons. Speech, in particular, on the possible deployment of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy military equipment. According to the publication, the United States plans to provide her with an American (!) military personnel located in the countries-members of NATO, which had previously been under the influence of the USSR: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. The relevant issue is now being discussed in the ruling circles of the USA, the newspaper said citing sources. According to them, the purpose of the Pentagon is "to deter possible Russian aggression in Europe". On the eve of the Polish authorities confirmed that the Warsaw talks with Washington on hosting heavy weapons. The relevant intentions of the Pentagon also welcomed in Estonia and Lithuania. Now we know that the us military and light weapons are already in Ukraine, affected by Russia – the aggressor country.
Ukraine and the invasion it was the first trap for Putin and his gang. A military response to Putin and his gang on the deployment of American troops and weapons in the former Soviet Union and Warsaw bloc is the second trap for Putin and his gang.
What do Putin and his gang right now? Coordinator of the office of inspectors General of the defense Ministry of Russia, army General Yuri Yakubov has said that Russia will be able to adequately answer the accommodation in the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic States of American tanks, artillery systems and other heavy weapons the United States and NATO countries. "If a heavy U.S. military equipment consisting of tanks, artillery systems and other military equipment will indeed appear in a number of countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, this will be the most aggressive step by the Pentagon and NATO since the cold war. And Russia would be nothing left, as to build up their forces and means at the Western sector," said Yakubov.
According to him, if in Eastern Europe American tanks and artillery, the defense Ministry in the first place, will strengthen the group of troops around the perimeter of Russia's Western borders, including new tank, artillery and aircraft parts. Missile brigade near Kaliningrad will be at an accelerated pace rearmed with new operational-tactical missile complexes "Iskander", combined arms grouping in Belarus also undergo significant changes. Yakubov added that Russia finally withdrew from the Treaty on the armed forces in Europe (CFE), which gives it the right to organize the response to be independent to any restrictions on the number of tanks, aircraft and artillery systems in the border areas.
Considering the horrendous costs of these measures, and given the ongoing the biggest "cut" in the post-Soviet history – the program of rearmament of the Russian army until 2020 to 20 trillion (!!!) rubles (60 to 70% will be stolen, and the rest is spent on the production of cardboard scrap, Russia's economy will simply be ruined much faster than it can imagine, not only pseudo-academician of the charlatan from the economy isnt there, but even these economists, as Andrei Illarionov, Sergei Guriev, Konstantin Sonin and Sergey Aleksashenko.
Now, as IT WERE.
In 1979, Brezhnev, nahodishsya then in power in the USSR for 15 years, along with his accomplices from the Politburo, in secret from the Soviet people, decided to send troops to Afghanistan. The UN Security Council has described the action of the Soviet Union as an open use of armed force outside its borders, and military intervention. The USSR vetoed a Security Council resolution. January 14, 1980, the UN General Assembly in Extraordinary session reaffirmed Security Council resolution 108 votes to 14.
As this decision had been taken to the USSR and how it operated?
By order of the Minister of defence Ustinov began preparations for a possible landing in Afghanistan 103rd guards airborne division. Was sharply increased the number of Soviet "advisers" (including military) in Afghanistan: from 409 in January to 4500 by the end of June 1979. It was decided to prepare the overthrow of Hafizullah Amin and replace him with a more loyal Soviet leader. As such were considered Babrak Karmal, whose candidacy was supported by KGB Chairman Andropov. In early December 1979 in Afghanistan was sent to the so-called "Muslim battalion" – a squad of special purpose GRU – specially created in the summer of 1979, Soviet troops of the Central Asian origin. In early December 1979, the USSR Minister of defence Ustinov reported to a narrow circle of officials from among the senior military leadership that in the near future will be, obviously, the decision about the use of Soviet troops in Afghanistan. From 10 December, on the personal orders of Ustinov was carried out the deployment and mobilization of units and formations of the Turkestan and Central Asian military districts. Was raised on a signal Collection 103rd guards Vitebsk airborne division, which had the role of main striking force in upcoming events. Chief of the General staff Ogarkov, however, was against the invasion.
The decision to send troops was made at the Politburo meeting on December 12, 1979:
1. To approve the considerations and activities set forth T. T. Y. V. Andropov, Ustinov D. F., A. A. Gromyko to Allow them in the implementation of these activities to make adjustments unprincipled character. Issues requiring decisions of the Central Committee, to be added to the Politburo. The implementation of all these activities to assign to T. T. Y. V. Andropov, Ustinov D. F., A. A. Gromyko
2. Charging T. T. Y. V. Andropov, Ustinov D. F., A. A. Gromyko to inform the Politburo of the Central Committee on the implementation of planned activities.
In 1979, the only member of the Politburo who did not support the decision to send Soviet troops into Afghanistan, was A. N. Kosygin, and from that moment on, Kosygin took a complete break with Brezhnev and his entourage.
13 December 1979 was formed Operational group of the Ministry of defense for Afghanistan, headed by the first Deputy chief of the General staff army General Chromeium that started in the Turkestan military district from December 14. December 14, 1979 in the city of Bagram was sent to the battalion 345-th guards separate parachute regiment, to reinforce the battalion 111th guards parachute regiment the 105th guards airborne division, which since July 7, 1979 guarded in Bagram Soviet military transport aircraft and helicopters.
At the same time Babrak Karmal and several of his supporters were secretly brought to Afghanistan December 14, 1979 and was in Bagram among Soviet troops. December 16, 1979 was an attempt to murder Amin, but he was still alive, and Karmal was immediately back in the USSR. 20 December 1979 from Bagram to Kabul was transferred "Muslim battalion", which was included in the brigade for the protection of Amin's Palace, which greatly facilitated the preparation of the planned storming of the Palace. For this operation in mid-December in Afghanistan arrived also 2 special units of the KGB.
To 25 December 1979 in the Turkestan military district were prepared to enter into Afghanistan field office of the 40th army, 2nd infantry division, army artillery brigade, air defense missile brigade, air assault brigade, combat and logistical support, and in the Central Asian military district – 2 infantry, control of the mixed air corps, 2nd regiment of fighter-bombers, 1 fighter wing, 2 helicopter regiment, parts of aircraft maintenance and airfield support. As a provision in both districts were mobilized three divisions. On fitting of parts was intended from the stock more than 50 thousand people from the Central Asian republics and Kazakhstan, and transferred from the national economy about 8 thousand cars and other vehicles. It was the largest mobilization and deployment of the Soviet Army in 1945. In addition, the deployment to Afghanistan was drafted 103rd guards airborne division from Belarus, which is already the 14th of December was moved to the airfields in the Turkestan military district.
The participation of Soviet troops in combat operations in Afghanistan by the Directive was not provided, did not specify the procedure for the use of weapons even in self-defense. However, on December 27, came the order Ustinov suppress the resistance of the rebels in the attacks".
The border with Afghanistan was ordered to move at 15:00 Moscow time (17:00 Kabul) 27 December 1979. On the morning of 25 December 1979 the first on the territory of the DRA was transferred 781-th separate reconnaissance battalion. Behind him crossed the 4th amphibious assault battalion, which was tasked with the protection of the Salang pass. On the same day began the deployment of units of the 103rd guards airborne division on the airfields in Kabul and Bagram. At the Kabul airfield first landed Marines 350 guards parachute regiment under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Shpak. When boarding one of the planes with the paratroopers crashed.
In Kabul, part of the 103rd guards airborne division by noon on December 27, finished the landing and took control of the airport, blocking the Afghan air force and air defense batteries. Other units of this division are concentrated in designated areas of Kabul, where he received the task to block major government institutions, the Afghan military units and headquarters, other important sites in and around the city. Over Bagram airfield after clashes with Afghan soldiers took control 357-th guards airborne regiment of the 103rd division and the 345th guards airborne regiment. They also provided protection Babrak Karmal, who is with the group closest supporters were taken back to Afghanistan on December 23.
The former head of the illegal intelligence of the KGB of the USSR, major-General Drozdov, noted that the introduction of Soviet troops into Afghanistan was an objective necessity, as the country has intensified the actions of the USA (they signed an agreement with China on Afghanistan, has advanced its technical observation posts to the southern borders of the USSR). In addition, the USSR and several times previously introduced troops to Afghanistan with a similar mission and didn't plan to stay there for a long time. According to him there was a plan for the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1980, personally prepared them, together with the General of the army Chromeium. This document was subsequently destroyed at the direction of the Chairman of the KGB Kryuchkov.
On the evening of 27 December, the Soviet special forces stormed Amin's Palace, the operation lasted 40 minutes, during the storming of Amin was killed. According to the official version, published by the newspaper "Pravda, "in the rising wave of public anger Amin, along with his henchmen appeared before the fair people's court and was executed". In addition to the main object units 103 yw. VMD and 345 OPDP were blocked and taken under the control of the military side of the Kabul garrison, radio-TV center, Ministry of security and internal Affairs, thereby ensuring the special forces perform their tasks. The second most important complex of buildings of the General staff of the Afghan army, was captured by storm the 7th parachute squadron 350th guards. RAP. He headed the General staff of the Afghan army M. Jakob, a devotee Aminu relative of his, a graduate of the Ryazan airborne command school. For the success of the entire operation was necessary to neutralize him because he could give the order for the Afghan army with armed resistance. Neutralization of James was entrusted to the commander of 103 GW. VMD General Ivan Ryabchenko. Moreover, the task was set personally by defense Minister Marshal Ustinov and KGB Chairman Andropov. Immediately before the beginning of operation Storm-333" General Ryabchenko, together with specially selected officers, brothers Łagowskie, went to the reception to Yakubu, ostensibly to clarify the locations of divisions of the Soviet army. When there was an explosion of the well of communication was the signal for the beginning of the operation, and Jakub figured it out, a group of officers headed by General Ryabchenko pushed the guard and neutralized Jacob, giving him no chances to contact with parts of the Afghan army. In his office in direct contact with the Afghan parts was a working radio station. Group General Ryabchenko itself had been blocked in the office of Jacob. 7th parachute company of the 350th guards. RAP, lost in a dark, unfamiliar city, arrived with a delay of 40 minutes. Only after her arrival a small group of special forces, smava protection on the ground floor, and controlling the corridors of the General staff, was able to breathe again. In its composition already had two wounded. They met the paratroopers words: "Children, come to the rescue of their commander! He blocked in the office of Jacob". Has not passed also hour as the building was completely under the control of the Marines.
In the night of 27 to 28 December Babrak Karmal came to Kabul from Bagram, radio Kabul gave his address to the Afghan people, in which he declared himself "head of the Afghan revolution."
Nothing like? The plot of the movie "Crimea. The path Home" – at least something?
The USSR "stuck" in Afghanistan for a decade.
June 7, 1988, in his speech at the session of the UN General Assembly, the President of Afghanistan, Najibullah said that "since the beginning of hostilities in 1978 up to the present time" (i.e. before 7.06.1988) in the country killed 243,9 thousand government troops, security agencies, government officials and civilians, including to 208.2 thousand men, 35.7 thousand women and 20.7 thousand children under the age of 10 years; wounded were 77 thousand people, including 17.1 thousand women and 900 children under the age of 10 years. The exact death toll in the Afghan war, in fact, unknown. Most common figure of 1 million dead; estimates range from 670 thousand civilians up to 2 million According to the researcher of the Afghan war from the USA, Professor M. Kramer: "during the nine years of war have been killed or maimed more than 2.7 million Afghans (mostly civilians), millions more have been in the ranks of the refugees, many of whom left the country".
After the war, were published in the USSR, the numbers of dead Soviet soldiers, by years, with a total amount of 13 835 people. This data first appeared in the newspaper "Pravda" 17 August 1989. Further, the final figure has increased slightly. As of 1 January 1999, the deadweight loss in the Afghan war (killed, died from wounds, disease and accidents, missing persons) was estimated as follows: the Soviet Army – 14 427 – KGB 576 , MIA – 28, total – 15 031. Sanitary losses – 53 753 wounded, shell-shocked, traumatized; 415 932 cases, of which infectious hepatitis – 115 308 people, typhoid – 31 080, other infectious diseases – 140 665 people From 11 294 persons discharged from military service for health reasons have been permanently disabled 10 751 people.
According to the Professor of Military medical Academy of St. Petersburg Vladimir Sidelnikov, the final figures are not considered military personnel who died (!) from wounds and disease in hospitals in the USSR.
Soviet troops in 1980-1989 was irretrievably lost 385 tanks and 2 530 units of BTR, BRDM, BMP, BMD.
To support the Kabul government from the USSR budget annually spent 800 million (!) USD. The content of the 40th army and the conduct of war from the USSR budget annually was spent from 3 to 8.2 billion (!!!) USD.
Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers N. Ryzhkov formed a group of economists who together with specialists from various ministries and agencies were required to calculate the cost of this war for the Soviet Union. The results of the work of this Commission is unknown. According to General Boris Gromov, "Perhaps even incomplete statistics was so overwhelming that she decided not to publish. Obviously, currently nobody is able to give a precise figure, which could characterize the costs of the Soviet Union on the content of the Afghan revolution."
On March 23, 1983, when the USSR was already "tightly stuck" in Afghanistan, suffered huge losses and huge material costs, U.S. President Ronald Reagan announced the beginning of a long-term program of research and development activities under the name "Strategic defense initiative" ("SOYA" – Strategic Defense Initiative). The main purpose of SOYBEANS was the creation of the scientific and technical basis for the development of large-scale missile defense (TMD) system with space-based elements, excluding or limiting the eventual defeat surface and ground targets from space.
Its main purpose was supposed conquest domination in space, the creation of a missile defence shield USA for reliable cover all areas of North America through the deployment of several echelons of space strike weapons capable of intercepting and destroying ballistic missiles and their military units on all flight segments.
According to some military experts, more accurately conveys the essence of the program, the title would be "strategic defense initiative", that is the defense that involve the performance of independent action, even before the attack.
The main elements of such a system was envisaged to base in space. To defeat a large number of targets (in the thousands) for a few minutes ABOUT the SDI program was for the use of active means of destruction based on new physical principles, including radiation, electromagnetic, kinetic, microwave, and a new generation of traditional missile weapons "earth-space", "air-space".
Work on the SDI program are fundamentally different from the outstanding developments of the past – such as, for example, the creation of the atomic bomb (Manhattan project) or landing a man on the moon (project Apollo). When addressing them, the authors of the projects overcame quite predictable problems attributable solely to the laws of nature. When solving problems in perspective ABOUT the authors will be forced to fight and also with a reasonable opponent, capable of the unpredictable and the development of effective countermeasures.
The ABM system with space-based elements, in addition to addressing a number of complex and extremely expensive scientific and technical problems connected with overcoming of a new socio-psychological factor is the presence of powerful, all-seeing weapons in space. It was the combination of these reasons (mainly the practical impossibility of creating SOY) resulted in the failure to continue work on the creation of SOYBEANS in accordance with its original intent. At the same time, with the coming to power in the U.S. Republican administration of George Bush (Junior) these works were resumed as part of the creation of a missile defense system, which is placed, including, now in Europe.
The SDI program, it is highly costly for the budget of the United States, gave a powerful impetus to the further development of the American military-industrial complex, which, as is known, consists mainly of private companies working with the U.S. Department of defense contracts. In addition, the SDI program and gave a powerful impetus to further development of scientific and technical base in the military industry in the US, and in the civilian sector.
The USSR got involved in this "arms race in space" and not vydaril – collapsed. First, he "went to Afghanistan, then in it stuck, then it escalated the arms race, and got a result that could not be different. No and never. Purely economically.
And now will be the same result. And I fully agree with economist Evsey Gurvich, who wrote his article "Guns or butter choice between weapons and consumption; only a highly developed country may, without prejudice to himself to act like a superpower" which was published in the newspaper "Vedomosti" on April 23, 2014. The conclusion from this article – in Russia there will be no guns, no butter.
And the Russian Federation. As there is now the USSR.
Slava Rabinovich, 16 June 2015
Source: Facebook Slava Rabinovich
