Russian opposition politician, scholar and essayist Andrei Piontkovsky is about the fourth world war, nuclear blackmail, Ukraine and the change of power in the Kremlin.

-What impression do you have from the last public speech of Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Assembly?

To assess this treatment is more important than the opinion of those who consider themselves supporters of Putin - he disappointed them the second part of the message. It consisted of two parts: the first is a powerful foreign part, which he read with great enthusiasm and passion, not hiding his hatred of the West and the desire to continue hybrid war.

And then there was the economic part. He read it without any interest. You can see that he was not interested in the economy. In addition, the speech contained obvious nonsense. For example, a few days ago he told me that when the reduction rate of the ruble updated budget. In this message he has already accused in the fall of the national currency enemies speculators.

Invented stupidity Chersonesos (Putin justified the exclusion of the Crimea by the fact that in the Chersonese was baptized Kyiv(!) Prince Vladimir, who then baptized the whole of Russia. Actually Chersonese was a Greek city that the Prince seized - as amended ). The fact that every time he puts forward a new rationale justifying the annexation of the Crimea, indirectly shows that Putin understands that broke a dozen international agreements.

- What are the conclusions from this message you can do in Ukraine?

- War with the West will continue. He also believes that not with Ukraine at war, and America. Ukraine too small for him the object for attention. If we talk about tactical things, from a military point of view, the time for a major military operation - a breakthrough corridor to the Crimea, and Transnistria is already lost. It is unlikely that Putin will go to the intensification of the conflict in the near future. Not so much for fear of serious sanctions, but because the probability of severe losses.

- You know, the number of Russian citizens who died in the Donbass?

- Nobody knows. Hundreds, thousands of different features evaluation. Losses were already on the verge of patience Russian society, though it was hidden. But it is clear that they (loss) represent a threat to social stability.

This does not mean that Putin had completely abandoned their plans. The main goal is not territorial acquisition, he n't would be to Annex Donetsk and all this Lucantonio. The aim is to prevent the European vector of Ukraine. He will use all means, including your fifth column, trying to reformat.

- Translation algorithm military conflict in the Donbass in negotiating a political channel exists?

He is, if there is Lucantoni - Putin will not hand over. To achieve the goal he has a wide Arsenal of economic pressure. Great expectations the Kremlin lays on the economic collapse of Ukraine, on possible default. In addition, a method of pressure is nuclear blackmail.

All that Putin is doing, takes place in the framework of the priority objectives is to remain permanently in power. And the fight with Ukraine and this is determined not to let her be an example that could inspire the Russian society at ousting him from power.

Your forecast: Putin will cope with this task?

"Let's not exaggerate its capabilities. He suffered a serious defeat in an important direction. In the West was quite influential cohort of people who understand Putin. For example, recall the April talks in Geneva, where four Ministers (including Ukrainian) was signed a Protocol in which the word "Crimea" was absent. That is, at that time, the signal of the West was: "Crimea we swallowed, do not go further, we try to build relationships". I think now he was sorry he hadn't agreed, but then he was euphoria, and the new Russia, in his view, was a territory of 8 Ukrainian regions.

Then the tragedy happened with Boeing, he was rudely toward and Merkel and Obama. Relations have seriously deteriorated that we saw at the summit in Brisbane in Australia. Now, the West is quite clearly reiterates that sanctions will continue, and good relations will not return, as long as the annexation of the Crimea. Putin has lost allies in the West.

Today the party is translated into economic stage: whether it successfully to reform, and political power to preserve the unity, would the West sufficient economic and even military support. In early January in the United States opens a new session of Congress, where a majority in both houses owned by the Republicans. They introduced a bill that includes the delivery of modern lethal weapons in Ukraine. And with today's balance of power is unlikely Obama will go on a collision course with Congress and vetoed.

As you seen from the outside, it will be possible for Ukraine to reform, to preserve unity?

- I really want. In Ukraine the fate of Russia and without exaggeration, the whole of Europe.

About six months ago, you described the likely scenario of the fourth world war, when Russian troops in the Crimean schematic capture part of the territory of Estonia, the area of Narva, and NATO countries refuse to Baltic military support. When choosing to surrender or to fight a nuclear war over the small Baltic country of the West, in your opinion, would choose the first. Something has since changed?

Now the West is more determined against Putin. It happened, as I said, about August, after the fall of Boeing. Speaking of Boeing. I was talking to a very influential and knowledgeable people in the Netherlands, was asked why the Commission, which investigated the crash, the report on the crash made such not clear wording? The reply was that they all know: and what Buck has arrived, and as he shot, and what numbers and so on. In short they have enough evidence to have a firm opinion on this matter. Now gather such evidence that will become apparent for any court, including the Hague Tribunal.

If we talk about nuclear blackmail, the first response was partly given at the NATO summit in Wales, where he decided to rotation of military personnel of NATO in the Baltic countries. Putin was the calculation that he would raise the stakes, and the West tremble, and the threat will allow you to achieve political goals. Now the question is, are you willing to die on Narva, addressed to Vladimir Vladimirovich. The first appearance of the green men in the Baltic States, will automatically mean a full-scale war with the United States. So a map of nuclear blackmail bits.

- It is clear that the stakes are high, and Putin is willing to die for their power and decisions. Are you ready to follow suit its environment?

- Correctly said Ms. Merkel Putin is in a different reality. Maybe he is the only person willing to go to nuclear war - he bets big. For him, the loss of power is loss of life. But I don't think his closest friends-businessmen Kovalchuk, Rotenberry and Timchenko is not something ready, they are horrified by this development.

"Putin's power and the fear of its loss take acute paranoid form, which is not shared by the majority of the Russian political class. Yes, they love to talk about the greatness of Russia, porugivali the West. But they all roots associated with the West: they got home, the kids get an education, receive medical care and generally follow the Western style of life.

In the last months of the life of comrade Stalin, too, was crazy. He was preparing for a third world war, was prepared by cleaning the item, a large Jewish pogrom that did not cause delight the environment. Then close the circle found a way to stop him.

Now surrounded by Putin is no such person, but they have another option: to spit on everything, get on a plane and fly to England. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that someone has enough spirit to contradict Putin. At the same time, their mood, the disappointment in the leader affects the effective functioning of the state, and this will contribute to the collapse of the economic and political structures.

- What is your prediction - how much time is able to keep the Russian economy under sanctions ?

- The skilled assessment gave the American economist Andreas Aslund. His analysis showed that tools that can be used to fulfill the social obligations, to ensure the stability of the budget, enough, at best, until the middle of next year. But we must remember that most economists comes from arithmetic, forgetting that the economy is the science of human behavior, which can act hysterically or to panic. For example, the export of capital from Russia this year is expected to be within $150 billion

- And how capital Amnesty, which he promised?

- No normal person, who put in so much effort to take the capital back his luck. This is another illustration of the folly and break with reality. We have no institution of private property, to any oligarch can come and pick it occurs within 15 years.

Putin understands that there is nothing good in economic terms, to demonstrate in the country is impossible. So he inflates anti-Western hysteria to unprecedented proportions, as it was in his last treatment: all economic difficulties - it intrigues of enemies, we Russians, we have a special genetic code, we are patient people...

- And what's next? Mass protests?

Mass protests will not be tolerated in mass arrests. The whole of Moscow and St. Petersburg know that there is a list of the three thousand people who should be interned (detained and deported) to prevent the threat of a riot.

- Peaceful change of power in Russia possible?

All dictators sooner or later die. It depends on many circumstances. For example, the mood of the chief of security. Of course, on free elections cannot speak, because Putin will fail. Political life in the classical sense of the word a long time are removed, so that this mode will not go away by organised electoral process.

Authoritarian regimes come in the combination of two phenomena: mass protests on the streets and division elite. During opposition demonstrations we had enough people on the streets - 100-200 thousand But if there was a split within the elite, the next day would have gone 500 thousand people.

Case in unique cohesion of the Russian elite - they may hate each other, but to hold on to this power because linked by their common origin, crimes and ways of dressing. Putin for them the protection of the people, could act against him, he would have fallen, but the next day it would be a lot of questions already to them. I mean, the so-called systemic liberals: Chubais, Dvorkovich, Voloshin, Prokhorov, surrounded by Medvedev. That is, according to all the laws of development and the fall of authoritarian regimes in 2011-2012 schism within the system was not followed. Moreover, these system the liberals have done everything, to direct opposition movement in the right direction (let's influence on the authorities, and not to blame her). That is the standard form of the fall of the regime has not occurred. And now it is pointless, and the regime will fall hard way.

- Do you believe the high ratings of the support policy of the current regime?

"No, of course. Some part of the population was encouraged by the annexation of Crimea, this has generated some enthusiasm, but it passes. Imagine, you, a former Soviet man, sitting in the apartment, you unknown and asks you for Putin or against? Yes the entire 100-year-old genetic experience suggests that it is safe to say "Yes". The Ceausescu rating was 94% for two days before his wife and both dogs were shot at the fence.

In the acute political situation are quickly changing. Solves an active minority. Experience the peace March in support of Ukraine and rally in support of the so-called new Russia shows that active Pro-Ukrainian minority in Moscow more active anti-minority.

- The last battles in Grozny " what was that?

- Another label Putin. The news was on the front pages of Newspapers only because the attack took place in Grozny. And it's a daily practice throughout the Caucasus. Chechnya such incidents are not typical because the militants headed Kadyrov there have long conquered. He has more independence than Dudayev and Maskhadov could dream of. Formally declares its loyalty to Moscow, sometimes executes instructions, for example, sends militants in Ukraine.

- You don't call at home a national traitor, not accused of anti-national activities?

- I even tried in 2009. This was the first process under the new law on extremism. Then the court I was justified, it was a small victory for freedom of expression. Putin is very rational, he chooses chiseled strikes on positions. And mass repression will produce when satisfied that all is indeed fraught with social unrest.

D. Orlov, LigaBusinessInform

Source: news.liga.net