Daily Ukrainian border in the Donbass cross dozens of pieces of equipment of the Russian army. The aggressor calls them "militia", but they go from Russia

The Russian Federation has focused in Donbass and Crimea shock grouping. Still strapped Russians strength enough to hold the occupied regions of Ukraine and local impacts, but the growing number of troops, mercenaries and heavy equipment can endanger a large offensive in Ukraine. What are the possible military scenarios of the Kremlin?

The number of troops aggressor

According to several sources LigaBusinessInform, close to the military departments, the total number of aggressor troops in the Donets basin is about 25 thousand people and about 400 units of armored vehicles, not counting trucks and artillery. The core of these forces and Russian troops, mercenaries, organized local militants - to 17 thousand people. The rest is outside the control of anyone of a criminal gang, "Cossacks", etc..

Also along the perimeter of the Ukrainian-Russian border where more than 40 thousand Russian soldiers and officers, hundreds of armored vehicles, aviation, air defense means. A significant portion of these troops concentrated in the Crimea.

The direction of the kick

According to the military, the concentration of Russian troops and armored vehicles terrorists recorded in the South-Western outskirts of Elenovka and on the Northern outskirts of Dokuchayevsk. Also, the terrorists are regrouping and strengthening positions on the outskirts of Mariupol from the Eastern direction.

Blue - conditional position of the Ukrainian forces. Red - the position of the Russian army and terrorists

In addition, military reports that the militants declared an all-out mobilization of the male population in the Torez, Snow, Makeyevka and Shakhtersk.

A new wave of offensive can begin as soon as the Russians will gather enough grouping at each of the key to her directions Luhansk - Happiness, Donetsk (airport) and Mariupol direction. Now the aggressor probes each of the three directions of the occurrence of armed provocations and attacks.

Russian troops and mercenaries continue to bombard towns, trying to build up a picture of provocation on the part of the Ukrainian military. This, according to analysts, may serve as the formal reason for Russia to continue the annexation of Ukrainian territory in the Donbass under the guise input "peacekeepers".

One scenario that is being discussed since spring is a corridor in the Crimea. The military believe that this is an important - if not the key - objective of the Russian aggressor. The attack may begin in Mariupol (or bypassing of the Berdyansk), and go to the Crimea and Odessa. However, for this occurrence only Novoazovsk forces of the aggressor is not enough. And the invasion of the Crimean group in continental Ukraine is a big war, which does not hide even on Russian TV

To maintain the combat readiness of the occupational grouping in the Donbass several times a month Russians are imported in Ukraine so-called convoys Putin. The illegal invasion of Ukraine is carried out publicly. Obviously, the vehicles carrying soldiers, equipment and ammunition. Most cars are really lucky food. But not hungry for civil and makeup for the Russian military and militants in the Donbass.

 In the NSDC assure the Ukrainian military is ready to give an adequate response to any possible threats to key areas of defence. Military admit that the obvious goal of Russia is not only the Crimea, and especially not the Donbass, and all the South-Eastern region of Ukraine. Wherever possible, together with Kiev.

The Ukrainian armed forces around the perimeter of contact with the enemy build a line of fortifications. However, defense and provides active protection. According to some reports, the Ukrainian secret services and special forces teams are working behind enemy lines to disrupt preparations for the offensive. The military details were not disclosed.

Blitzkrieg Putin will not work

"Putin blitzkrieg will not work. Start it an invasion in the near future or in the spring of Russia in this war gets stuck for a long time. It is simply not enough forces and resources for a full offensive on all fronts so-called line of Novorossia," said LigaBusinessInform military expert at the center for Information resistance Yuri, Karin.

He notes that 50-mile corridor to the Crimea, about breaking down which they say is "pure adventure". "Even if the troops from the Crimean and Mariupol areas will be able to reach towards each other, Putin will get flanking the corridor, handling of cargo which is not worth talking about," says Karin.

However, as I lay in the center IP, a new wave of inevitable invasion of Russia, and Putin will continue to act on the patterns of the Soviet-Finnish war of 1939-1940 "First Ukrainian army will be accused of "provocative shelling" in Russian or "Novorossiysk" troops. Then the Ukrainian army again "suddenly fired artillery fire" any city or village type Maynila that will lead to the destruction of the military or the Russian-speaking population. After that Russia (or DND/LNR using RF) will start forcing Ukraine to the "cohabitation", - is spoken in the center IP.

Experts IP lead five arguments about the inevitable increase aggression of Russia against Ukraine:

The first is the obvious strengthening of the militants in the Donbass heavier equipment regular troops of the Russian Federation.

The second defective condition DND and LNR. To call these formations "new Russia" sometimes even ashamed of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Moreover, the rhetoric of the aggressor does not leave the phrase "South-East", although no war in the South of Ukraine no. However, the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine already sewn Kremlin propaganda in the brains of the Russian people.

Third - Crimea, where winter will begin the season of storms, which will chop off the last thread connecting the occupied Ukrainian Peninsula with Russia.

Fourth, the rapid devaluation of the ruble and the worsening economic situation in Russia in connection with the sanctions. People need to distract from acute social problems. War is clear to the Kremlin agent.

Fifth - political and resource potential of Ukraine. Russia without Ukraine looks really weak Asian country, especially against China.

Source: http://news.liga.net/