One of the scenarios of the further development of relations between Ukraine and Russia in connection with Russian aggression in the East is the scenario of "total war". Such a scenario of development of Russian-Ukrainian relations, according to Gorbulin, the most heroic and sacrificial, although the least likely.
According to Сensor.NET, this is the article for ZN.UA writes Volodymyr Gorbulin, Advisor to the President of Ukraine, Director of the National Institute for strategic studies under the President of Ukraine, doctor of technical Sciences, Professor, academician of NAS of Ukraine. According to the author, such a scenario is possible, subject to the adoption of the Russian leadership's decision about the beginning of open military aggression for the purpose of obtaining a land corridor to Crimea or unhindered access to its military contingent in Transnistria. In this case, Ukraine will be deprived of a range of options for resolving the conflict in the Donbass, and will be forced to defend their independence, using all available resources. "The development of events in such a scenario would mean for Ukraine a complete militarization of society; the economic, political, cultural and ideological mobilization and advocacy; the introduction of martial law; the maximum reliance on their own strength, due to the inevitable international isolation, at least in the first stages of total war and a corresponding decrease in the influx of external resources; focus on the uncompromising destruction of the enemy; attacks on the critical infrastructure of the enemy; active guerrilla and sabotage activities; the failure or minimize diplomatic and economic interaction with the enemy state and its satellites; the complete subordination of diplomacy to Armed forces and military propaganda," sure Gorbulin.
In this case, I'm sure the author of that Ukraine has a chance of winning an all-out war, as opposed to her country with limited technological and financial resources; low "margin of safety" of the political system; a population that is characterized by negative demographic dynamics and the inability to resist aggressive national minorities; "nemodernizirovana army. Gorbulin believes that the resistance of the Ukrainian people Russian aggression sooner or later he will return the location of the leading States of the world, and also to deepen the international isolation of the Russian Federation. In addition, its demoralizing and demotivating role play fighting on the territory of Russia itself, which would inevitably arise in the context of total war. "In case of defeat of Russia in such a war will be finally resolved the question of ownership of the Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine will get rid of the existing "fifth column" outspoken supporters of the "Russian world", will get its own "heroic epic" as the ground for Patriotic education of future generations. The majority of issues of Ukrainian-Russian relations will be solved completely, and the historical path of both Nations will diverge forever, and the level of antagonism reaches the highest levels. Even in the case of capture by the Russian army part of Ukrainian territory war is not over - we'll continue the guerrilla movement and subversive activities against the occupiers. According to this scenario, inevitable intervention in the conflict of the West in one form or another, the introduction of new, cruel sanctions against Russia, a complete political isolation of the Russian leadership, perhaps, the exclusion of Russia from the UN Security Council and other international organizations. On the other hand, the price of victory will be destroyed infrastructure and economic potential of Ukraine, numerous victims among military and civilians," writes the author. Gorbulin notes that Ukraine total war is purely defensive. It does not necessarily lead to mass casualties; on the contrary, the willingness of such a war will be substantially to restrain the aggressor fear of significant losses and the threat of hostilities transfer to its territory. Motto defensive war can be formulated as: "total mobilization for survival", the purpose is "completely disregard the superior forces of the aggressor on his own territory by inflicting maximum demotivating loss".
This scenario, according to Gorbulin, the most heroic and sacrificial, although the least likely. A desire to fight in General lack both Ukrainian and the Russian people - no one wants to lose the benefits of a peaceful modern life for the sake of the whims of a handful of political adventurers, says Advisor to the President of Ukraine. "Overall, the scenario of total war is focused for Ukraine to win and maintain its territorial integrity. History is replete with examples of successful viscous propertysystem wars States small and medium vs. large States and much more powerful. However, this scenario can bring not only win, but also a significant loss for the country. But in any case, this scenario is not the purpose of Ukraine. The government will be forced to follow only in the case of a full-scale open aggression by Russia", - says the author. Just Gorbulin has identified five basic scenarios of development of events in the Donbas and the Ukrainian-Russian relations in connection with this, three of them radical, two intermediate compromise.
The first radical scenario - the scenario of "total war", which is possible through the adoption of the Russian leadership's decision about the beginning of open military aggression for the purpose of obtaining a land corridor to Crimea or unhindered access to its military contingent in Transnistria..
The second radical scenario - the scenario of "clipping" or "wall" calls for a final refusal of Ukraine from the occupied territories and a complete break with them.
The third radical scenario - scenario "SatelliteTV", involves finding ways separate peace with Russia on favorable conditions, disregard of the interests of Western partners, the recognition of the autonomy of Donbass, the rejection of the return of the Crimea.
The fourth scenario is a scenario of "freezing" is to "freeze" the conflict on the model of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia.
The fifth scenario is a scenario of "no war, no peace" or "limited war and a permanent negotiations."
Source: http://censor.net.ua/
