After a victory of our troops in defensive battle on the Debaltsevsky arch in fights on January 23 – on February 1 military operations proceed, and the Russian command changes tactics of actions. Russia throws new tank and artillery divisions of "holiday-makers" to fill big losses of crews of mercenaries and active armed forces. The situation around Debaltsevo remains difficult and demanding immediate decisions. Immediate.
To exclude transfer of our reserves, the opponent tries to hold down our troops, carrying out attacks of local value and a shelling around Popasna, Avdeevki, Sand, Crimean. But these attacks do not constitute serious danger any more, forces are small.
It is possible to tell that winter approach of the Russian terrorist troops on Donbass is successfully reflected in all front. However the opponent makes a regrouping and continues local attacks and attempts to destroy separate strong points and separate divisions of the Ukrainian troops. Around Debaltsevo these attacks represent big danger as the base sizes so small that falling even one brick in fighting construction will lead to serious consequences.
The situation on the Debaltsevsky arch remains to the extremely difficult and demands immediate decisions of the Commander-in-chief, the General Staff and command of ATO.
As a result of big losses of infantry and armored machinery of the Russian mercenaries which considerably demoralized fighters, the opponent tries to avoid attacks by large forces, instead local attacks by small groups of infantry and tanks are undertaken, with strong artillery support. The Russian artillery - the major striking factor.
Serious threat for Troitsk and the routes M-103 remains as a result of the opponent's vklineniye around the Red Plowman and height 307,9, and also around Kalinovki.
Now the Russian command throws parts of mercenaries and accumulates group near Uglegorsk, and also strengthens pressure upon all east face of our base - from occupied with the enemy - to Redkodub, Chernukhino, Kamenka. Chernukhino and Redkodub are exposed to attacks of assault groups and the opponent's tanks in recent days. It is a burning issue. There is heavy fighting, both parties sustain serious losses. It is obvious that here the reinforcement is necessary.
The opponent tries to filter into the back to our troops - generally, tries to find routes as it is more convenient to break integrity of defense and to put under supervision at least one piece of the route M-103.
East face of the Debaltsevsky arch - the most weak spot in ours fighting orders. There rotation is necessary for those divisions which already long were under fire.
The opponent moves ahead very carefully and departs, having encountered organized resistance. The new "humanitarian" escort of Putin delivered a large number of ammunition, and the opponent prefers to solve tactical problems by means of artillery. In a network there was video of the Russian artillery batteries, by quantity of fighting vehicles obviously that it is any not "miners", but "holiday-makers", and at them is on arms of art system which they could receive only from "voyentorg": and also a significant amount of video as the Russian artillery fires on our troops. On the Russian rollers there are also batteries of heavy howitzers of 152 mm "Acacia" and "Msta-with ".
Firmness of the Ukrainian soldiers on the Debaltsevsky base is worthy the appreciation. They are under constant pressure of the opponent, since January 17, and here two weeks do not disengage - our strong points are exposed to continuous attacks. No signs of demoralization are present, and soldiers continue to execute orders accurately.
The Russian artillery conducts massive attacks of the peace cities to disorganize our back and to show that the Ukrainian army cannot ensure safety from attacks on Donbass.
We kept the front, but in the war there is nothing static and constant. Active actions of the opponent should oppose our active actions. And no other options are present here. The Debaltsevsky arch is not fortress - strengthenings there only field which managed to construct troops, they help defense, but Debaltsevo's region only thanks to courage and professionalism of our soldiers keeps.
Change of a strategic situation at the front
The Debaltsevsky ledge was occupied with our troops in July. Since then the situation at the front considerably changed. The opponent changed. In July the Russian military personnel was applied as a part of reconnaissance divisions, as crews of tanks and artillery calculations. Armies of the Russian mercenaries of "DNR" and "LNR" were not organized and represented large gangs. They could not sustain large collision with the Ukrainian troops and could not perform independent offensive operations on operational depth, they could only defend the cities and conduct diversionary and prospecting actions.
Today the situation changed. Since October, Putin transferred control of military operations of the Russian mercenaries from intelligence services in hands of armed forces of the Russian Federation. Organized powerful recruiting points which provided mass involvement of the being and acting military personnel of Russian Armed Forces and their direction on war to Donbass in the Russian Federation. In fact, Putin turned gangs of terrorists in private military of the company. Armed forces of the Russian Federation created staffs for management of military operations and completely assumed the organization of military operations.
In January Russia started conducting military operations by forces of regular army again. Parts of the Russian self-propelled artillery and jet systems of volley fire are the main means of fire defeat of our troops.
The Russian parts freely maneuver, focus forces on the chosen directions, look for weak places and gaps in defense. They come for rotation and rest, they receive uninterrupted deliveries of military equipment and ammunition, supply subjects from the Russian Federation.
Our soldiers continue to battle successfully, but to keep such small base so deeply in the back of enemy positions the long time under constant fire of heavy artillery is impossible if not to carry out active actions. Because we lose equipment and people - as it was in the sector "D", without reaching resolute results.
At present all parts of Armed forces and National guard on the base keep full fighting capacity and controllability. People keep, but iron and concrete do not maintain. And the enemy one heroism and self-sacrifice cannot be stopped. We need to keep fighting capacity of our army, and not to allow the opponent to destroy military equipment.
Deduction of the base in Debaltsevo is possible only in the presence of reserves which will provide rotation of front divisions, and also will be able to carry out counterattacks. As the base is exposed to fire of artillery through.
It should be notedIt should be noted a key factor - heavy artillery of the opponent. Some heads underestimate a factor of heavy artillery and its impact on defense. The matter is that in Afghanistan Mujahideens did not use a howitzer of caliber of 152 mm and heavier systems of arms. And they did not apply artillery is massed, batteries and divisions.
The artillery opens any field fortification constructions, and its application strongly beats on nerves.
Options of a solution of the problem of the Debaltsevsky base - pluses and minuses
Defense of the base in Debaltsevo from the military point of view:
Pluses:
1.Deduction of the strategic base which creates threat to Gorlovka and breaks connectivity of defensive positions of the opponent to the east of Gorlovka.
2.From the moral and political point of view of Debaltsevo - the Ukrainian earth and to hand over it to the Russian invaders - means to show to Ukrainians of Donbass that we have no forces so far to ensure their safety in any point.
3.Deduction of the base in Debaltsevo is an argument on peace talks which shows to the whole world ability of Ukraine to resistance and need of support of our fight.
Minuses:
1.The base has very small area and completely is exposed to fire of the opponent on all depth even from caliber of 122 mm. It does impossible removal on rest of any connections and divisions of a zone of art fire of field artillery.
2.Deduction of perimeter demands from us much bigger forces, than from the opponent.
3.Defense of the base is possible only at continuous conducting active search and shock actions on the base, existence of a constant armored reserve on a case of possible break of the opponent. Also constant armored reserve is necessary for cover of a mouth of the Debaltsevsky arch.
4.The guaranteed deduction of the base demands deduction of a strategic initiative - conducting active offensive actions in other neighboring areas.
5.The Ukrainian troops already showed the increased level of fighting capacity and inability of Putin mercenaries to be at war without direct participation of the Russian troops. After the achieved success silly to finish successful battle, again getting to a dangerous tactical situation.
6.Putin does not conduct any negotiations and expects, obviously, achievements of significant military success.
Key factor in the war - speed. Because of a slow assessment of a situation by the political management and the General Staff there was a tragedy of the new terminal of the Donetsk airport. This recent lesson cannot be forgotten and it is impossible to repeat.
And not less important factor of deduction of the Debaltsevsky arch is as well as during all war - existence of the fresh mobile operational reserves having the high level of fighting capacity. Reserves are necessary for ensuring rotation, carrying out private attacks of local value, and also for readiness to localize any attacks of the opponent.
From the military point of view deduction of the base in Debaltsevo is unprofitable. The base matters first of all from the moral and political point of view.
The decision to keep or depart depends on understanding the Ukrainian command of the opportunities and resources.
Very much it would not be desirable that in Debaltsevo the situation with the Donetsk airport repeated. When troops held all positions, but as a result of lack of response of command to changes of a situation the opponent could take the new terminal in a fire pocket, and it led to big losses and its fast leaving.
From my point of view - as the opponent is broken in defensive battle and restores the troops for new storm - it is necessary to provide evacuation of everyone of civilians, to provide them conditions of residence in Ukraine, to prepare gate-type positions for providing in case of the order of fast withdrawal of troops through intermediate boundaries, to check readiness of equipment both to provide its repair and to prepare ways of withdrawal in case of need to disengage all troops one throw.
Politicians have to do the work, and military have to do the. Sometimes the policy has to influence military strategy, sometimes - on the contrary. A key factor of preservation of independence of Ukraine - fighting capacity of army. And in this case the military logic, in my opinion, outweighs. The Russian command actively prepares for the beginning of spring military campaign on Donbass, and we have no superiority in forces in comparison with the opponent. The public opinion in the West does not allow to speak about introduction to Ukraine of peacekeeping troops of NATO during spring campaign yet. At that time when Russia already now applies the army and strikes constant terrorist artillery attacks to our cities and to our soldiers. We have to militarily in the next half a year at least count only on ourselves. And proceeding from it to make decisions both in military, and in the political sphere.
Yuriy Butusov, Censor.NET
Source: http://censor.net.ua/
