Direct intervention will lead for certain to a blackout of Russia from the world financial markets and accident for credito-and import-dependent Russian economy. Putin is not ready to make such rate. He is afraid to break off the relations with the West completely. He is afraid to become a derelict, he wants to keep access of the Russian top to the Western material world.
STRENGTHS OF THE OPPONENT:
The general command in every way carries out the opponent on Donbass, by data "the Censor. Is NOT PRESENT", command of land forces of Russian Armed Forces.
The infantry and armored machinery of the Russian mercenaries take part in attacks - about 60%, and local traitors - to 40%. These are the mixed fighting groups of infantry, armored machinery and artillery.
The number of shock parts of mercenaries - to 6-7 striking forces with a total number up to 10 thousand people.
A little efficient gangs in the back by which are given on feeding of the city and village and which too receive the weapon and military aid, have total number to 20 thousand people.
Groups of the Russian mercenaries and local gangs have no large connections for concentration and massaging of forces. Parts of the opponent keep character of big guerrilla groups. However the Russian command makes serious efforts for increase of level of combat training, growth of discipline, coordination, and formation from mercenaries of parts of level of company and tactical and battallion and tactical groups of constant structure. The scenario of expansion of gangster army goes precisely according to the scheme of Transnistria, Ossetia, Abkhazia.
Regular Russian provides to army logistics and fighting providing, radio engineering investigation, radio-electronic fight, antiaircraft defense, communication at the operational and tactical level, deliveries of military equipment, artillery investigation, and artillery support. Regular parts of the Russian troops - battallion and tactical groups of the mechanized troops, and also groups special troops, carry out functions of operational reserves, protection of the back, fire defeat of the Ukrainian troops. Also Russian intelligence services carry out functions of counterintelligence and keep order in gangs, thus without stopping before need of physical elimination of inconvenient field commanders - Alexander Bednov, Evgeny Ishchenko were so destroyed.
Total number of active armed Russian forces on Donbass does not exceed 10 thousand people now, however on border with Ukraine are concentrated and not less than 20 thousand more are engaged in providing, rotation and support.
The Russian command uses Ukraine as the educational and fighting ground for working off of the plan of combat training and studying of probable routes of the movement on a case of the real large-scale invasion.
It is obvious to part of regular army, have the order to enter contact fight only in some cases. As a rule, Russians wage not contact war - groping fighting orders of our troops and inflicting then fire defeat over the revealed defense centers. Also groups of mercenaries try to use similar tactics.
ASSESSMENT OF THE TACTICAL SITUATION:
The purpose of attacks of the opponent - destruction of fighting capacity of concrete Ukrainian parts and divisions. I emphasize is a war of attrition. Therefore the war purpose - not occupation of territories and a raising of flags: the purpose - reduction of fighting force, fighting capacity falling to break connectivity of fighting orders.
Blows are struck at the same time in different places not to allow maneuver of forces and to force to spend the maximum quantity of reserves on all front. However the most part of attacks is only imitation of active actions. The opponent masks thus the directions of the main blows.
Russia wants to destroy army - to beat out our military equipment, and first of all artillery, armored machinery - all that at us is not filled, that provides fighting stability of many not enough trained infantry divisions.
"Coppers" in the sector "D" and Ilovaysk show that knocking-out of equipment, transport of supply and a hassling of efficient divisions leads to fast crash of the front, withdrawal and delivery of the territory without fight. It is the option, most favorable and desired for the opponent.
As the opponent freely maneuvers reserves on internal operational lines and is not connected by a problem of protection of the extended front, he tries to inflict defeats over parts on the advanced line. The big sparseness of fighting orders and insufficient density of our troops simplifies this task.
Directions of actions of the opponent:
1. Debaltsevsky arch. Debaltsevo - one of key communication knots of Donbass. The opponent undertakes attacks to our divisions from two parties at a throat of this arch - in Svetlodarsk and Troitsk. These are two most dangerous areas at the front.
2. Donetsk. The opponent tries to remove in every way the front from Donetsk. The directions of blows - Maryinka, Avdeevk, Sand. Donetsk - large base of supply and key knot of communications of the opponent. The proximity of the Ukrainian troops very much complicates to the opponent use of Donetsk and threatens bases of the opponent in the city and vicinities.
3. Bakhmutskaya Route. The opponent tries to reject our troops from the route which has important operational value for maneuver of forces. Control of the route is key for control of the majority of positions in this area.
4. Gorlovka. Gorlovka - one of the most vulnerable cities in defense of the opponent. Gorlovka is densely captured from flanks by the Ukrainian parts. Positions are very convenient for storm of the city. Therefore Gorlovka holds down many forces of the opponent. The Russian command also intends to bring down our divisions from convenient positions.
5. Military operations at Volnovakhi and Mariupol have exclusively demonstration character at present. Terrorist attack of Mariupol pursued the aim to draw attention to Mariupol and to hold down large forces of the Ukrainian army which keep this strategic city. Terrorists use information resonance from murder of peace citizens to hide the operating plans. However, the opponent often changes the direction of blows because continues attacks only where encounters weak resistance. Unfortunately, by an assessment "the Censor. Is NOT PRESENT", the probability of terrorist attacks of the cities by the Russian mercenaries sharply increased.
6. Military operations around Popasny also have demonstration character, however there activity of the opponent is more accented and is not excluded that the opponent can also undertake local attacks to distract our reserves from Debaltsevo.
The Russian groups undertake local attacks in various sectors. Concentration of the shock groups of the opponent capable to strike blow on operational depth - it is not observed. The continuous front as that does not exist - defense and approach have focal character, round the cities and knots of communications. Intensity of military operations is low. Attacks in case of effective counteraction stop or carried out as developing attack for identification of fire weapons of the opponent, probing of weak places in fighting orders.
The opponent concentrated shock divisions in various sectors of the front which carry out active actions, trying to provide on the chosen narrow direction local superiority in forces.
However the opponent has no overwhelming superiority, and to the Ukrainian command quite on forces to reflect attacks.
The greatest threat is caused by crisis in Debaltsevo's region.
The success of battle depends on maneuver by forces and drawing defeat to shock groups of the opponent near Svetlogorsk and Troitsk. The Debaltsevsky arch at the moment is a point of connectivity of all Donbass front.
ASSESSMENT OF THE MILITARY-POLITICAL SITUATION:
Opponent's purpose: The purpose remains former - large-scale destabilization of Ukraine, provoking of system economic, political and social crisis. Putin wants to create conditions for crash of the operating state model and strengthening of the pro-Russian influence, inclusion in the leadership of Ukraine of the pro-Russian leaders. It is the exact scenario of succession of events in Georgia when by means of war, economic and political blockade Putin achieved defeat on elections of democratic party of Saakashvili and coming to power of the pro-Russian regime of Ivanishvili who accompanies the Kremlin.
By an assessment "Censor. Is NOT PRESENT", strategy of actions of Russia during war in Ukraine remains invariable and cyclic: war escalation - a truce - preparation for a new stage of aggression - the beginning of local military operations - war escalation - a truce. Russia has no resources for occupation of Ukraine. Putin wages war first of all by forces of divisions and parts of constant readiness. It cannot send large group the Russian troops for approach in Ukraine because mobilization in the Russian Federation is necessary for occupation of Ukraine, and for big war the Russian Federation already has no free resources. For Putin the continuous conflict of low intensity is a political lever of continuous impact on Ukraine and the instrument of internal mobilization due to growth of nationalist sentiments to the Russian Federation, convenient political means of fight against stagnation and an economic crisis.
As the Ukrainian society shows high political stability, and the economic crisis after all could not bring down the state, the Russian invasion into the central Ukraine will not lead to crash, and on the contrary - will make resistance to more fierce. Russia seeks to avoid responsibility for invasion - because resources to contain the country ruined by war at Putin is not present. Russia does not provide Donbass. And completely stopped financing of Transnistria, serious disorders because of reduction of financing took place in Abkhazia.
Direct intervention will lead for certain to a blackout of Russia from the world financial markets and accident for credito-and import-dependent Russian economy. Putin is not ready to make such rate. He is afraid to break off the relations with the West completely. He is afraid to become a derelict, he wants to keep access of the Russian top to the Western material world.
Therefore you should not expect approach with the wide purposes on this round of war.
PROBLEMS:
The main problem of the Ukrainian command is a total absence of a strategic initiative, excessive centralization of administrative decisions, restriction of independence at commanders of a tactical link command of ATO. Unfortunately, the chief of the General Staff shows misunderstanding of a situation, absence of strategic thinking and operational planning, low level of staff culture, misunderstanding of nature of modern war and inability to analyze and learn lessons.
Reform of army which according to the plan of Muzhenko was approved by Poroshenko and Poltorak, reduces capacity of army command because the General Staff suggests to complicate structure of management even more, to create for some reason two more expeditious commands.
The control system of troops considerably worsened in comparison with the beginning of war - about it tell all sources "the Censor. Is NOT PRESENT". Victor Muzhenko's project on creation of additional intermediate control links between staffs of expeditious commands and crews subordinated to them - creation of sectors and an army staff of ATO, was absolutely failure. As a result all staffs are incomplete, and staffs of the sectors which are carrying out expeditious command are completed most weakly. Besides, Muzhenko finally confused management of that constantly subordinates separate parts and even divisions personally to himself. Coordination and interaction of troops do not improve, and on the contrary - worsen. These are the main reasons for defeats in Donetsk to the airport and on a post in the Red Guerrilla who Muzhenko and command of ATO cynically tried to hide.
The Supreme Commander Petro Poroshenko covers with Muzhenko and rescues it from responsibility. It is our main minus.
The General Staff is not engaged in formation of connections of constant combat readiness. As well as at the beginning of war military operations conduct separate battallion and tactical groups of structure of crews. The General Staff cannot send any complete crew to the front as is not engaged purposefully in completing. As a result the opponent acts with large parts, and the Ukrainian command cannot quickly concentrate harmonious connections for achievement of superiority in forces and achievements of qualitative advantage.
Level of combat training is absolutely primitive. There is no training center which provided educational process of all crew at the level of Soviet "uchebka".
In spite of the fact that we have two intelligence services, intelligence service, huge on number, huge on number, - SBU, and also we have for investigation by State frontier service and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, we have very considerable support and a large number of sources of information, the effective prospecting system still does not work. Tens of thousands of staff of intelligence services and multi-billion budgets, actions of intelligence services remain very separate and do not represent a complete picture, do not allow to take completely under control each settlement and each street. Coordination of actions of reconnaissance community completely is absent.
POSITIVE CHANGES:
The Ukrainian army turned into the armed Maidan. For lack of competent management each military unit leads the life. Key figures in the Ukrainian army and National guard are company and battallion commanders. The course of military operations on a concrete sector of the front completely depends on their personal qualities. Where the commander is initiative and independent, there inadequate command cannot place to effective implementation of fighting tasks and combat training. Where the good commander is not present - the level of fighting capacity of division conditional and depends on different factors.
But it is important to note - both in army, and in National guard, and intelligence services among ordinary, younger and average officers very competent and competent cohort of fighters and commanders gradually took shape, and their number slowly grows. The Ukrainian Armed forces have the true capable frame.
If the Ukrainian political elite unites for reform of army and National guard, and a problem of development of the military doctrine, strategy and tactics of war, completing and combat training, arms and logistics will be completely entrusted professionals, and command positions will be filled by criterion of competence - that already now to Ukraine is on whom to rely.
FORECAST:
Reflection of attacks of the opponent on the main directions will lead to fast attenuation of this next phase of war, and repetition of a cycle. Putin again will allow to bring himself to the negotiation table and again will say nothing the words about the world meaning to it. And again for some time war will fade. But it for a while. Winter - not the most convenient time for operations in the naked steppe. The good review, big range of detection and firing remains.
As "the Censor more than once predicted. Is NOT PRESENT", the most convenient period for active actions of the opponent is a spring, since the second half of April when there is "brilliant green". When there is a foliage - the opponent again will have an opportunity to use tactics of an infiltration of small groups and short fire raids for attack held down by passive standing on posts of the Ukrainian divisions.
The following and much more active phase of actions of the opponent is necessary for the spring. And Ukraine has to make efforts to change nature of military operations and to begin reform in army which could increase fighting capacity and quality of management considerably.
Putin will not go to the world until we become rather strong. The speech does not go that it is necessary to destroy all Russian troops - Putin will leave even if his groups will suffer rather serious losses. We learn to be at war, but we should learn to win.
Yuriy Butusov, Censor.NET
Source: http://censor.net.ua/
