Putin hopes that Ukraine and in the West again believe in his madness and make concessions

A few weeks ago, it might seem that the settlement in Donbass, taking into account the financial and economic crisis in Russia is quite possible. Of course, it was not about the withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of Ukrainian control, but at least on the actual cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal of heavy equipment, fixing the demarcation line... Proponents of this version of events - and among them were not only journalists, but also leading Western politicians and diplomats - proceeded from elementary logic. It is not serious military action, large-scale battles. To invade new regions of Ukraine can't - besides, it is already clear that on any occupied territory have to spend their own money, just to retain control over part of the territory of Donbass, too, no it makes no sense. But the removal of at least part of Western sanctions sense is because Russian companies need loans. There is a sense in bringing at least some investment in hereyou the Russian economy. Well, if not in attracting investment, at least in the suspension of capital outflows. It's quite clear that oil prices will not rise, that the Russian ruble is still not hold that large-scale banking, social, and political crisis - on the threshold. And talk about it not only in the West, but in Russia itself.

The inevitability of a crisis was said at the Gaidar forum leading representatives of the economic block of the Putin regime. About to give up the Donbass for retention of Crimea said recently, former Prime Minister of Russia (and the former head of the foreign intelligence Service of the Russian Federation) Yevgeny Primakov, still with apparent authority in spetssluzhbisty circles. And all of this could give the impression that the Russian leadership understands the inevitability and necessity of concessions.

But this impression does not take into account the logic of the main participant in the process of Vladimir Putin. It is obvious that Putin wants negotiations. Moreover, it is generally believe that everything should be as before - without any sanctions, problems for Russia and low oil prices. But in his picture of the world concessions should go West and not he himself.

In Putin's view about what is happening only change the reasons why the West must crawl on his belly to the throne of self-styled Emperor of Russia. After the occupation of the Crimea and the imposition of sanctions was confident that the West will not be able long to "punish myself" that its economy will suffer from the termination of cooperation with mighty Russia that German businessmen - a gift that is fed in an era of raging oil prices - will be getting the shaft presumptuous Merkel and so on. All my conversations with Russian officials and businessmen of that time was reduced to one phrase: nonsense! And sanctions will cancel, and the Crimea admit them worse.

When it became clear that worse than them, and Russia that the ship Vladimir Putin distress that oil prices are falling, and Russian companies have nowhere credited for returns exorbitant debts have another idea, why the West must capitulate. Because he should be afraid! That now makes Vladimir Putin in the Donbass, illogical from the point of view of the classically-minded person who is not familiar with the logic of thinking of spetssluzhbisty. Continuing to escalate the situation when everybody expect him peace, Putin hopes that Western politicians get scared, believe in his madness, that he is able to make a big war, to send their "holiday" not only in Ukraine, but also in the Baltic States or the Balkans. And then they come crawling on his belly and begin to negotiate on his terms. And his terms are simple and clear: the former Soviet Union, should turn into the Eurasian Union, with the transformation of Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Caucasus countries in the new "Federal Republic", ruled from the Kremlin, and neighboring Europe - Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, the Baltic States, the Balkans, Finland - must once again become the Russian "sphere of influence" and will have to raise oil prices, it is mandatory. Otherwise the war. And we will agree a mutually beneficial cooperation on an axis Moscow - Berlin - Washington.

With all fantasmagorical such requirements need to understand that no other Putin not because he thinks solely of the Soviet past and not able to understand the future and realizing the impossibility of realization of the projects of the twentieth century in the new Millennium. It is clear that to agree on such terms with Putin, no one will. But what he would not recede from its basic idea is to agree only on the Russian conditions is also understandable.

Does this mean that not finding understanding in the West, Putin will start a big war? No, it does not. Putin is a master of bluff, and no battles. Yes, and potential for large-scale war had not. In addition, the Russian President is not as independent as it may seem. Yes, he is a tyrant, surrounded by madmen - but in General, the Russian elite is still very high possibilities of correction disastrous policy decisions. And Putin is also well understood, so will not look for trouble, and will look for new levers to influence the West and its intimidation. The escalation of hostilities in Donbass, one of these levers can be sabotage in Ukraine, provocations in the Baltic States and the Balkans, in short, everywhere where there is the possibility of "pouring gasoline".

What should Ukraine do in this situation? Not to succumb. What is happening now is primarily a war of nerves. With each new day weakens Russia's position worsens the state of the economy is the aggressor, is grudging and fear of its elite and will soon lead to popular discontent. The Russians just didn't realize the extent of approaching them collapse, but will soon realize that this is no temporary deterioration and even "wild 90", this is a full-scale disaster, comparable to those through which Russia was a century ago. Therefore, Putin's regime is doomed, moreover, each new day of its existence increases the possibility of irreversible collapse of the Russian Federation as a state structure in its current form. But, knowing this, you need to understand something else: Putin will attack and to muddy the water until the very end.

Vitaly Portnikov, journalist

Source: http://www.liga.net/