Expected in late November and early December, the offensive of the Russian Federation from the Donbass did not take place. Primarily due to increased equipment Mat, the movement of which can be seen on the closure of airports in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv.

For this reason publicized press conference Putin on 18 December and ended sacred zilch to say there was nothing. Putin had to chew the rubber about the Chersonese and to evade questions about the "black" Monday and Tuesday of the ruble. The offensive has not begun, and the need for political support at the level of the President of the Russian Federation has disappeared. But widely announced a press conference it was impossible to cancel and Putin had to "take the rap". The result was that the mountain brought forth a mouse, as assessed this "event of the year.

The idea to launch an offensive around 29-30 December, our new year's rotation in the army of Ukraine, partly sabotaged themselves and the Russian military. Anyway, and in the New year it is better to drink than to fight. Helped and weather: South and East of Ukraine has brought snow and covered with frost, is not the most convenient time for the attack. Therefore, the Russians wisely decided: let Ukrainians will clean the road, and then we will attack.

In addition remembered that snow-covered fields and planting along roads full of mines, and his opponent, who put them atsel already far away. Dig mines from under the snow - employment is not for the faint of heart. Mass to sweep them Shine in the direction of advance. To go on the offensive slender columns of armored vehicles on the freeway is placed under the fire of artillery, and "ukrops" shells "brothers" is not a pity. Fortunately, the shells brought up as artillery. Rusahinili in a deadlock.

As people who graduated from the Academy, they know that the first wave of attackers, even in cleared fields, they will remain because of the artillery fire. The problem arises field hospitals, as well as the second and third echelons of occurrence, depending on the stated policy objectives. Assuming that the enemy can counterattack, and will not prevent something like "reserve rate". But none of this in the volumes required military "art", at the moment have no headquarters, developing the offensive. Generals are politicians, and explain: with such forces to Odessa, but also to Kherson will not come. Provide resources, as targets.

In the Kremlin on their reports displeased frown, because they are in a deadlock. From Donbass "game" can occur only army DND and LNR or mythical new Russia, as the Russian army there was not. But all of Novorossia - Tsarev and Boroday, nice living in Moscow.

DND and LNR to merge in the new Russia by command Tsarev and persuasion Beard in no hurry and logical traded as business people. Even hinted that if the Kremlin to meet them you will not go, and be on the side of Ukraine to go, if Kiev recognizes that DND and LNR is a Principality Akhmetov and Ephraim in Ukraine and within the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

So Zakharchenko with Carpentry in November and December regularly and said that he would go into the offensive and "win" every "their" region. The Kremlin became nervous, and arrested both "zakonomernyj" characters on charges of theft of humanitari and other small sins. From Zakharchenko, it seems, has quickly achieved kissing the shoes of the Pope of the Third Rome and returned whence they had taken. But Carpenter is still in "business trip" in Moscow, as restorefiles the Bednov (Batman) ratted in the Kremlin that Carpenter not only Tirith mattress at the militias, but also "leaks" LNR "Octopii".

January 1, zealously Batman burned alive along with his wife and protection. Rusomo first said that he died in "banderovskoe" ambush, and then that all live and testify in Moscow on mattresses, styrenic Carpentry. The NSDC of Ukraine informed that they are all dead, but destroyed them not evil "Bandera" and good "smernicki from GRU RF. It is more likely that eliminated Batmana themselves enroute as the Kremlin's Squealer to teach it to others.

Girkin correctly understood the signal, and urged his fans to get away from the Donbass. Call logical, since ideological volunteers in the future going to kill Donetsk and unprincipled will be in the military Prosecutor's office of the Russian Federation, if you're lucky. In the tone of his Kositsin, taken a month ago from the Donbass in the Rostov region, said on 5 January that though he is the chieftain of the great don Army region, but to announce his exit from the Russian Federation did not think and do not think of the morrow, and all the Cossacks loyal to the Tsar and even revere him as Emperor.

Thus, 4 months after the Minsk agreement, the Kremlin faced unpleasant facts for themselves.

First. New Russia't much in it for the money is not Ulivi and "novarossi" just scream that they merge and nedolivat. New Russia from the myth becomes real "black hole", with a tendency towards extraction of holes-Respublica demanding separate funding. If each village will continue to declare himself the government of the new Republic and to demand money from Moscow for the opening of the Embassy in Abkhazia, the Russian budget money and without us sanctions.

Second. Force does not pass, and the army of the residents of Donbas obtained peasant: Kiev does not want to go, I agree only to stand at the roadblock near the house and for wages of war. Otherwise the checkpoint will not stand. Generals Putin to January 1, explained, and he issued a decree on the procedure for admission to the army of the Russian Federation foreigners who are residents of Donbas. Because single Serbs, bored without war, "the Emperor" such decrees are not published.

Third. "Militia" DND/LNR did an evolutionary path Donetsk "brigades" of the 1990s, but faster, since they were holding the machines, not bits. Now these "new Donetsk" want to collect tribute from the stalls and resolve issues, and at the same time kryshevat "old Donetsk". Landcov they already take with fodder fields, Akhmetov "pushed", but promise the roof, if there is to share and to send a humanitarian aid. From such success in the "new Donetsk opened a taste for the "good life", champagne and shrimp, the importation of which in Donetsk in the autumn rose. It is in the vicinity of Donetsk fight for the humanitarian aid from Russia, and in the Donetsk beer with shrimp for a "militia" is tasty and affordable. To the frustration of the Kremlin's "new Donetsk" I want to reinforce the status and shrimp to it than to advance. Led for the grandmother and booze Porechenkov and Russians to shoot is one thing, but to attack another.

Fourth. The most terrible for the Kremlin fact: with "new Donetsk" it is urgent to do something, and then agree with the "Okapia". The experience of "red" in Ukraine suggests: to serve, and then to eliminate as Makhno, Bozhenko, Shchorsa, Grigorieva, Kotovsky or Bear-jap. Therefore, the decree on the admission of foreigners into the army of the Russian Federation.

Fifth. Ukry for 4 months surrounded occupied by the Russians part of the Donbass mines and guns, not barbed wire, as in the hearts of the said Tymoshenko in 2005 to Break through that barrier will be difficult. But what is worst of all the Kremlin: the residents of Donbas was not the Russian people to send in there and go, and cunning Ukrainians that without shrimp for the Empire to fight don't want frustrating than standard Imperial war plan forces separated the natives.

The result of four months of truce for the Kremlin. To create a large and efficient army of the residents of Donbass, which was given the role of infantry in the Russian tankers and artillerymen, failed. Putin's decree on admission of foreigners into the army of the Russian Federation - a new attempt to create it, but in the General staff understand: you can count only on the Russian occupation of parts, and therefore increasing their numbers, hiding under the army some of the new Russia, as the Japanese were disguised as his army of Manchukuo.

With the political design of this Manchuria in Ukraine has problems too, which discusses a number of options, including the return of Yanukovych, the underlying stability and pokrashennye" on Russian tanks, like the Emperor PU Yi, who carried them in Japanese China. But with the Russian army has problems too - it cannot be increased in the Donbass to infinity, and it already requires a rotation that goes. Rotation is a holiday here and only a complete moron or a bigot in Russia can claim that the army Putin in Ukraine. In addition, the occupying Russian army in the Donbass need something to do, otherwise it makes, like the French and Greek invaders in Odessa in 1918-1919, Therefore, not to be bored and not play Russian army in "the truce" storming the Donetsk airport, shell Sand, Debaltsevo, Stanichno-Lugansk region, etc.

So the Kremlin was in the Donbas in complete deadlock: want to come, but could not. After the first year of the Ukrainian revolution, Putin is not a plan: what to do next, and we have to act according to the situation, and it is not in his favor. If the Russian fighters during his "training-combat" shooting still get by soldiers of the Ukrainian-Lithuanian-Polish brigade and will be lost, it can be considered ad Russia war NATO. Then NATO will have the right to decide how, where, and how to respond to the Kremlin. The war, launched by Russia threatens to return to her like a boomerang.

Sergey Klimovsky, "Middle East"

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