Ukraine should use the chance and forever become a part of the European world. This chance is paid for by the blood and given the history
Now it's easy to write that, years later, looking back on 2014, we will write that lived historical 365 days. And in fact, if only to remember the most important thing is - the Maidan, the death of Heavenly hundreds, flight Yanukovych, the annexation of the Crimea, the war in the Donbass, the presidential and parliamentary elections, the crisis in Russia - it turns out that we spent a memorable year, which will write novels and make a movie.
But we think so because don't know yet what will be 2015. And it's not stating the obvious - that after 2014 the year comes 2015, I have no doubt that you, the reader, and without me it's all we know. This proposal is to understand that the main challenges of 2014 year not only overcome, but on the contrary become the main content of our lives and the world around us.
The Maidan has launched a historical mechanism, therefore, the 2014 year of events unfolded with such breakneck speed that many of us may feel that the Maidan ended in February of the year and was a few years ago. It is so much happening now seems to be developing like a "staying", slow time - although actually events continue to occur rapidly, just we have already got used to a different rhythm and don't want to abandon it. It is therefore crucial may be the 2015 year, not 2014 - and it was about this time will be to write novels and to tell the children. And 2014 will be just stunning prelude to real change.
And not necessarily changes will occur in 2015. It is obvious that our country has become a generator of the cycle of Imperial modernization, which has already been experienced by the Russian Empire a century ago. Just remember that the first clear impetus for change in Russia was the Revolution of 1905, the participants demanded the democratization of the country and which also drew energy in the suburbs, and not in the Russian hinterland. This impetus to democratization became the orange revolution - while the limitations of their objectives and results it squarely raised the issue of fair elections, which then has ricochetal" and in the Russian Federation, Moscow Marsh, resulting in tightening mode - just as in the Russian Empire after the suppression of the Revolution of 1905. Tightening mode in both cases led to the increasing inadequacy of the first person, artificial breeding of idiots and madmen in power and complete lack of understanding of their patterns of economic development and political processes in the modern world. And in this sense, the Maidan - and especially the death of Heavenly hundreds - it is possible to compare the shot in Sarajevo in 1914. We of course can't say for sure what was on the Maidan shot from the Russian rifles - just as we can not say for sure that Russian hand led to the murder of Gavrilo Principle. But suspicions of this kind has been preserved after the assassination of the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, they saved us after the Maidan. First of all, because Russia a hundred years ago, and now is interested in such a course of events, considering that he unties her hands with a foolish point of view, of course. But the Russian leadership to 1914-th year, and by 2014 it was already equipped with madmen.
The only chance to save the Russian regime in 1914, in particular, given the revolution of 1905 - evolution with economic reforms and careful democratization. But St. Petersburg wanted to participate in the war for the redivision of the world, the Russian government was offended by the underestimation of its global weight, believed that Serbia is a natural part of its sphere of influence, "greater Central Europe" - that is to say Austro-Hungary is weak and will not be able to resist, with Germany will be able to agree with France to join the Union. In the result, the Russian authorities even if they are not prepared to gamble in Sarajevo, with pleasure was involved in its consequences - and died. It should be recognized that many of the calculations were correct: Austria-Hungary was really loose, France became an ally of Russia, with Germany really managed in the end to agree in Brest. But the state of Russia itself, these calculations did not take into account.
The only chance to save the Russian regime in 2014 year consisted in a progressive evolutionary reforms in the economy and careful democratization. But Moscow wanted to participate in the war for the redivision of the world, the Russian government was offended by the underestimation of its global weight, believed that Ukraine is a natural part of its sphere of influence, "greater Europe" - that is to say the European Union is weak and will not be able to provide serious resistance, with Germany will be able to agree with France to join the Union. In the result, the Russian authorities even if they are not prepared to gamble with the forceful dispersal of the Maidan, with pleasure was involved in its consequences - and die. It should be recognized that many of the calculations were correct: the EU was really loose and floppy, France in fact trying to find a compromise, and Germany will eventually agree. But the state of Russia itself, these calculations do not take into account.
In late 1914, the patriotism and enthusiasm in the Russian Empire were in full swing, the year seemed to be a turning point, and the upcoming year is victorious and happy. In 2014 the year the event took place a little earlier because he had heard the shots in Sarajevo". By the end of 2014, Russian society comes demoralized and confused, but the main disappointment is the nightmare of 1915-1916, the Russians are still ahead. And only the future can answer, will this nightmare democratic February 1917 year or February, as has happened in Russian history, will grow in October, Russia's disintegration and civil war. And we must remember that in our time what had happened for several years, now laid in the year or months - so the main watershed year can be 2015, and 2016.
What does this mean for Ukraine? If we understand that before the execution of the Heavenly hundreds and flight Yanukovych remained part of the Empire - in the form of economic protectorate with imitation of independent States - we will see what awaits us the fate of the "Kingdom of Poland" or "Grand Duchy of Finland, which took advantage of the collapse of the metropolis and forever become a part of the European world. Ukraine is Poland XXI century - with all the resulting consequences. Lumps Empire will hate us for a long time and to sing in pubs its a terrible song ("I remember the dogs-the chieftains, remember the Polish lords konarmeiskaya our blades" is a century-old song about the battle of the UNR army and the Polish army with Budennovsky, one of the battles in which it had been saved Poland) - but to do nothing will be able, as could do nothing broken our heroes bastard Budyonny, only to turn into a song of defeat into victory.
We enter the world without Russia. And next year it will be clear even to the Russians. That is, Russia itself is still not going anywhere, at least its territory - but as a political and civilizational concepts in our world it will be gone. And this is the main result of 2014.
Now everything depends on us and only us. Occupants can still make a diversion, to come up with new adventures, to impose a dangerous deal - but it is not able to change any of our choice or our future. If we are able to modify our own country - then the next 10-15 years will forget the centuries of Imperial vegetating as if it were not with us, and when looking at the preserved somewhere bust of Lenin will think not "move it out" and "who is this?". If parting with Russia, will continue to hope for a "maybe" - then zavisnim between the civilized world and decaying pseudonaja, with no will to go forward, no desire to go back.
Time to jump at us not so much - I really hope that we will be able to use the chance, paid for by the blood and sacrifice of our compatriots and given the history.
Vitaly Portnikov, journalist
Source: http://www.liga.net/
