The Kremlin is losing control over the levers of Russian society. At some point the government will cease to control it at all, then the vast territory of the Empire will be the principle on which he now lives Donbass

This opinion article for publication of the "Left coast" stated Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko:

"What is happening with Russia today, is very scary. I am an optimist and until the last hope for good, but until you see the background only to the fact that the country that is now called the Russian Federation in the medium term will cease to exist in their present borders.

I think we are now in the final stage of the collapse of the Empire, which began in 1913 and since then continuously ongoing. Putin had a chance to stop this process and to turn Russia into a truly developed, democratic, free country twenty-first century, but he has done the opposite and only spurred the process of disintegration.
Putinism never knew how to solve problems. Putinism has always been able problems only worsen. If there is minimal difficulty, the regime will do everything to ensure that this was a national disaster. The authority also believes that he is doing a great thing: reviving the Empire, raises his country from his knees, returns to her Majesty, is building the "Russian world", protects spiritual braces and so on.

In Russia today sky-high level of obscurantism, but still no 80% support the Kremlin's policy is not and never has been. This is an absolute lie.
There is a notion, according to which now lives in the Russian society: "spiral of silence". Take conditionally hundred eighty of them will begin to say that white is black, and then twenty others, who know that white is white, silent. Because they are afraid to speak and think differently than most. And if asked, these twenty people will say that white is black. Now in Russia is such a tool of manipulation. These 80% always played around the television to persuade people that thinks the vast majority. And you, who don't think so, you are the outcast. It works. Yes, Putin supports most. But this is where some 60% but not 90%.

However, society really has gone mad. I never could understand how Germany in 1939 turned into what it has become. Exactly the same processes are happening in Russia. The society EN masse ill schizophrenia. For sociologists, of course, is the Golden age take it and learn.

Practice shows that in Russia public opinion as such, no. As the TV will say, so people will think. Television propaganda was a powerful tool. We underestimated. What she does with the society, what it turns people is really scary. As said Goebbels, give me the media, and I from any nation will make the herd of swine. The beginning of this process is happening before our eyes. Today, 60% of Russians shouting "urine Khokhlov!", but give me two weeks of free TV and they will shout "glory to Ukraine!".
Ukrainians now assigned the role of the enemy. Russia always lived by fighting the enemy. Since 1992, the enemies were Estonian fascists, who were demolishing monuments to our soldiers. Then the enemies were Chechens, who were enemies-enemies for a very long time. Their enemies were churcbes, on - Tajik migrants, these Georgians, then gay, they are unbelievers Antichrist, then pandosy. Now we enemies Ukrainians. Absolutely logical chain. Simply place the damned Chechens took damn Bandera.

At the same time, the annexation of the Crimea supported are 80% of the population. But one thing is relatively bloodless annexation, and quite another war. Invasion of the Donbass supports the minority, even according to the opinion polls.

The society remembers the coffins from Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, Transnistria, Nagorno Karabakh. To fight the Russians in General do not want. This I can say for sure.

But the state has lifted up the small layer of some brand-travelled head of personalities, hungry for war. Given the management of the country. These people are capable, of course, much, and what it means, I don't know.

Any war is always beyond the area where it started. It is quite clear that the war that was unleashed by Russia on the territory of Donbass, in the current boundaries will not remain. She begins to flow in the direction of Russia. This will lead to serious problems. I think that in the medium term, all of Russia will turn into one big DND.
The power vertical is already damaged, the Kremlin has already lost control over the levers of society. At some point the government will cease to control it at all, then the vast territory of the Empire will be the principle on which he now lives Donbass. This area will be to control the armed groups, which will plunge it into chaos. We have already seen in the Donbas: armed detachment of a hundred men was enough to subdue one hundred thousand Slavyansk. A hundred gangs thousand people will be more than enough to starokhalilovo the country to plunge into chaos.

That is why I believe that this war is the beginning of the disintegration of the Russian Federation in the form in which we know it. Russia, it will bring big problems. Of course, I still hope that will cost without any global cataclysm, or at least a little blood, or even quite bloodless and relatively peacefully. But until I have a pessimistic Outlook on the future.

You must understand that ensures progress, moves the world forward active part of the society, which in any developed country is approximately 15-20% of the population. The remaining 80% are middle class, who will not be thinking about some sort of policy, will not go, and earns money that night to open his beer and eat sausages. Russia's problem is that this layer of active citizens is practically lost. The last genocide of the gene freedom of thought, intellect, thinking the man was in the 1930-ies, when deliberately destroyed these people. The great Patriotic also crippled. Then by the end of the 1980s this layer in Russia has recovered. Appeared those whom we call the technical intelligentsia, physics and poetry. But since the 1990s is just a huge brain drain from Russia. Again, the leak of this gene freedom and volomike.

With all of this, Russia is a paradoxical country. How much is it hollow, free people will still appear. In 2011, two hundred thousand went on the March for freedom, democratic values, fair elections. To imagine nobody could. When the year before the rally gathered three hundred people, it was considered a success. People woke up. But lost. We thought we were going to wave the white balls, Putin will be scared and run away.

Now the society, there is this principle of "spiral of silence". If you need somewhere to assent - podujeve, do not interfere. Freedom-loving people there, but they are either planted or are silent. The chance that the active layer can deploy Russia towards the development of a democratic, free society, remains. He is not great, but it could happen. But also there is a chance that the country will unfold in the direction of absolute obscurantism, in the direction of the Orthodox Wahhabism that Russia will turn into Orthodox Pakistan. And it is nothing less than the possibility of a reversal in the democratic party.

Thinking people in Russia a lot, mainly technical intelligentsia. But at the moment of premises to ensure that the country will choose the democratic vector, no. The librarian can not take a gun and go to burn tanks. It is not its function.

Another thing is that now activates the ultras. About six months ago, the ultras ill wool, now this situation has changed dramatically. Russian March, which has always been Imperial, fascist March - absolutely terrible spectacle is sharply divided into two: one where the youth went with the flags against the war in Ukraine, and the one with the Imperial flags for the "new Russia". The latter especially was taken on the outskirts of Moscow, in order to avoid clashes. In this extremely active nationalist environment vector began to change.

I remember an absolutely wonderful time when some national traitors, liberals and agents of the state Department held a press conference and came up with the supporters of the "new Russia" to wave flags under the Windows shouting "Putin! Putin!", "The new Russia! New Russia!". Were passing three young sports guy, it saw and the guys with the flags of the "new Russia" just broke, thus supporting the liberals, which just a year ago, at each rally drove the bits kicking the doorways. And now they're going against the "Russian world".

In short, who the hell knows what's going on. The whole broth, minced and stewed fruit, which there is kneaded, really hard to comment on. And social services, which would explain what is happening with the Russian society, no. The government itself does not understand the mood among the people. According to insider information, the last peace March was given quietly to hold it in order to count how many people will come, and see how they will be configured. The Kremlin does not own sociological information. Say, they felt, was very surprised, and I think more of such shares none to spend will not give.

Power madly afraid Maidanov. But now the Russian Maidan in the sense in which I understand it, the movement of democratic, free society of the XXI century is impossible. I have absolutely no doubt: if people will take to the streets, will be ordered to use force to open fire, to enter the tanks. 1993 all showed.

It was my first war, and I remember the tanks were standing on a bridge and shot their own Parliament. Notice, it was under Boris Yeltsin, which is considered, in General, the most democratic Governor in the last hundred years.

So when Putin any attempt Maidan will undoubtedly be filled with blood.

The whole policy of Russia, the vector further movement defines one man - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Everything that is happening in the country, is done either by direct instruction or in an attempt to please him. To predict future developments is absolutely impossible. This man was formerly predictable as ABC. Career Vanga in Russia it was possible to build on once or twice: consider all possible options, pick the worst, I say "be" and it becomes so. All that could be done poorly, this man always did. Now all became unpredictable. I absolutely cannot imagine the world in which he exists, that he is in his head as he sees the structure of the planet Earth. It's some kind of detachment from reality, and what step is next, where will unfold this vector, assume absolutely impossible.

But I remain an optimist, hoping that the transformation of Russia will either happen in a peaceful way, or a little blood. It seems to me that nobody in the world was fighting for freedom, as did the Russians. For thousands of years. But the only problem is that the state each time was much stronger. I hope that someday we will win.
It's hard for me to write about what my country has become what it has become. That Russia becomes what it becomes. I would like to write about how wonderful we are, good and great, and we all love and glory Putin!". But unfortunately the situation is such that "the glory of Putin!" I can't write. Because I want my country was normal.

Russia is not only Putin.

Source: http://obozrevatel.com/politics/23894-vojna-na-donbasse-stala-nachalom-raspada-rossii-rossijskij-zhurnalist.htm