Economic sanctions by the West against Russia hit by Vladimir Putin's regime is much stronger than that expected in the Kremlin. The deterioration of the welfare of the country threatens the collapse of the Russian Federation in the literal sense of the word.

Wrote about this on his page on Facebook, a popular blogger, a Russian financier Slava Rabinovich.

According to him, in Russia now there is a "chronology of the end", during which the Russian authorities are engaged only in order to minimize their own losses.

"You know what today and tomorrow, over the weekend, busy senior managers of all investment banks in Russia? They all sit in their banks, conference halls, along with all his associates, Chief Operating Officer-AMI, heads of departments, risk management, and trying to calculate how much they flew, and how much could fly counterparties. And decide to "cut" all trading limits on the trading lines - all in all," says Rabinovich.

"None of us understands what losses they, and others, and who and what and how much could fly for the last month, and most importantly - for "expedited beginning of the end", the week before last, when the 4th of December was made by Putin with the Stalin-Hitler's geopolitical speech and promise to chase currency speculators," he added financier.

He noted that people in Russia today watching the ruble and the index type of dollar equity index called RTS, but not everyone knows that some stocks that are not as liquid, generally during this time came in half". In other words, writes Rabinovich, their prices have fallen twice.

"Someone had something "by the book". Someone was holding something for a client, collateral, giving him funding leverage. Someone has not closed the deal with someone else, twenty million dollars, when the paper is gone, and the money has not yet come. Will pay if the buyer? Or he will declare himself bankrupt on Monday? And if you do not declare, you will have to pay if during this time, plus for the first three hours on Monday, the price went (and still go) to fifteen percent? And as quickly reach the money in swift? In General, you can trade this volatility, when swift money now coming week?" wrote the financier.

"And who is generally on the market is bankrupt, not only admits to the bitter end? What if its something Torhout, and he will not put money for sold him the paper, or will not deliver securities for the purchased securities, prior to the bankruptcy? And there lies one in the repo? What are the discounts and haircut-am was given money against collateral? Can customers bring more security or money, due to the fall in the price of collateral? Want?" asks Rabinovich.

"If mark-to-market at closing time on Friday is known for all listed positions, what mark-to-market faithful for less liquid securities? They have the "bid" price $ 20, or $ 10 per share? Because the difference is considerable, one hundred percent... And how do you know? Transactions had not been three days, and bid-offer parted, as football goal... and even if 10, then can I sell size at this price? And what will happen on Monday morning? What happens if the market will do "gap-down" right from the opening interest at 5%? How much will fly their Bank, with their positions in the proprietary desk and with his equipment on the trading desk? And how much will cost contractors and competitors, i.e. trading partners? They will remain alive after the following 5% right from the opening? And if not, how much risk they tied for the weekend?" writes Rabinovich.

"And if the first big investment Bank "lie", then how many will be "gap down" of the market as a whole, and for each paper, especially in less liquid? And what are their positions and positions of clients have such a Bank, which we are not going to call from the list of those who lie with a higher probability? After the fall, what will be a chain reaction among all other banks?" wrote expert.

Rabinovich noted that this is now I think the top managers of all Russian investment banks in Russia.

According to Russia today, it is her own "Lehman moment" and the weekend will be the most critical.

"Weekend for this "thing". Usually weekend comes internal panic at all, in preparation for the opening on Monday, and no one can do except to pray. Oh, and shut up limits at all. All at all. When all the dust settles on this ashes... it may take a few months... but what is it? The complete collapse of the economy and a new round of financial collapse, i.e. the transformation of the ruins in super-ruins? The blade regions, separatism, civil war? Full stop trading, the closing of the stock exchange?" writes Rabinovich.

"And who knows... After all, the same was never, in the entire history of the Russian stock market. To sanctions many levels, from most countries. To exclude Russia from the international capital market. To become toxic. To be expelled from the G-8 and G-20. So the country was called a pariah state. So the country was internationally recognized borders for the first time since the Second world war. Who knows what will happen? No. No one ever made such an experiment is not set", - says the situation financier.

"You ever read any of the so-called "Prospectus"? Memoranda of placement of securities or shares of investment or hedge funds...? This is such a boring thick documents, which usually no one never reads... almost none. There are sections interesting... they are called "Risk Factors", usually at the very end. Open, read, for fun. It lists all kinds of risks that can come up with lawyers in nature. Political, economic, financial, infrastructure, and acts of war, and g-d knows what else. Here read this section and think, "But it's awful if something materializes from this, it is necessary... that's because then it will be the end of the world, the end of the market, the end of a career, the end..."," continues Rabinovich.

"Rarely have to admit that most of these risks materialities... or already materialized. Just like that, one after the other. Boom-boom-boom. Within a few weeks of March. Then a few months after March. The farther the worse. And read this "Apocalypse now", written in the section "risks" lawyers... and feel cold with horror," wrote judge.

"Because I know that the country is run by political, economic, financial and legal degenerates who wanted to spit on your Prospectus Placement of Securities (or shares of your Fund), wanted to spit all over the country, you, your investors and customers, the entire financial system, on the whole economic system, and the nation as a whole. Are not you and not to all. They need to understand how not to get in the Hague and not to be killed by their own. And nothing more, because they have the agony. More they could not see, not know, not know - not only the Hague, and not to be killed. Everything else is unimportant. If you need to shelter - in the shelter. If the bunker to bunker. The agony. Not up to you. Not to you and not to me," he wrote on his page Slava Rabinovich.

Materials: Browser