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The operation of Turkish troops in the Syrian canton of Arfin is over. It would seem that this should concern us least of all, but this is only at first glance. Strictly speaking, Turkey showed its determination and flexibility in getting rid of threats that it considered critical.

Let's remind, Turks were not very interested in fighting with IGIL, although they provided their territory for logistics of the coalition forces. They were more interested in the fight against the Kurds, which lasted for decades and more than once passed into rigid phases. Even before the war in Syria, Turkey shuddered from the terrorist attacks of the "Kurdish Workers' Party" led by the odious leader Abdullah Ocalan. Strictly speaking, the very name of this political force spoke for itself. The Kurds fought and are now struggling to create their national state at the expense of part of the territories of Iraq, Turkey and Syria. Working this party was called because it was originally supported by the efforts of Sovka. Then Moscow was spitting on the Kurds, as such, on their desire to create the state and other things. Where it was more important to have on its territory one of the members of NATO its ramified network of agents and militants, which could be used both as pressure on Ankara, and in case of a possible conflict. That is, the Turks could easily cut off the Bosporus and paralyze the Black Sea Fleet, and in addition, various types of nuclear weapons were stationed in Turkey at different times.For the scoop, this situation was very dangerous and he compensated it by supporting the separatist movement, activating his activities at the right time. The Turks understood this, and therefore maintained a balanced attitude to the scoop and the movements of its fleet through the straits.

As it often happens, a very long confrontation, and especially - on a national basis, does not pass without a trace and becomes something like a peat fire. Somewhere under the surface there is a source of fire and as soon as circumstances permit, it flares up with renewed vigor and comes to the surface. So it happened with the Kurds. The war in Syria gave a new impetus to the revitalization, and the flows of weapons that went through the region transformed the guerrilla, terrorism-prone movement into a well-organized fighting structure.

It is clear that this turn of events of Turkey did not smile at all, since the armed and well-organized detachments of the Kurdish army located along the southern border of Turkey almost continuous stripe. That is, the neighboring areas of Syria, de facto, became Kurdish territory, with all the ensuing consequences.

Considering the fact that the Syrian authorities, in the person of Bashar Assad, have long lost control over most of the country's territory, it was pointless to conduct a dialogue with him about the Kurds, and therefore Ankara decided to solve the issue directly, without empty communications with Assad.

But the trick is that the Russian Federation initially had its own interests in Syria, in particular - the pressure on Turkey because of its refusal to lay gas pipelines on its territory of competitors from Azerbaijan and Central Asia to Europe and, on the contrary, to lay its own pipelines. Since it was a question of Turkey becoming a pipe transit to Europe, it was important that it promoted the idea of ​​a Russian gas pipeline to the Balkans. But Turkey has very uneasy relations with Europe, and lobbying for Russian interests does not even smile at all. Therefore, Russia was eager to receive not just a lever of pressure on Ankara, but a club to which it could correct its course.

Not surprisingly, having decided to openly and actively take part in the Syrian war, Moscow raised its old agency affairs and resumed its relations with the Kurds. As the Kurds proved to be rather well organized and motivated, they represented a serious force in the region. The States, for their part, also joined the game with the Kurds and were able to attract a large part of them to their side. This was not difficult to do, because in its present form, the Kurdish movement is not a very monolithic construction.

Perseverance of the Turks in the formation of the buffer in Syria (which has already disintegrated) is unconditional and obvious. But they began to demonstrate flexibility in the application of hybrid tactics with Moscow. Since Putin was most important to stick his pipe to Turkey, this was his weak point. Erdogan skillfully manipulated this circumstance and forced Moscow to "throw" its Kurdish allies. As a result, the Turks have the opportunity to seize the border Syrian territories occupied by the Kurds.

The operation to occupy the canton of Afrin lasted about a month and a half and went without haste and record pace. This shows that the Turkish army has adopted the principles of warfare of NATO. The option "at any cost" remained with the Russian Federation, and the Turks walked slowly and confidently: "they have advanced - they have become entrenched". At the same time, the Russians several times introduced and withdrew their contingent of "military police" to the center of the province, the city of Afrin. Perhaps the calculation was that the very presence of the Russian military would not allow the military and Ankara's proxy to complete the final capture of the province. But the Turks did not hurry to capture the center of the canton, but gradually squeezed the ring around it and, importantly, they left the humanitarian corridor, which was under the fire control of Turkish artillery. That is, in any scenario, just the course of the military operation, the Turks excluded the accusation of themselves in the genocide of the local population, for the example of the Russian Federation and Iran showed how not to do it.

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As a result, the main forces of the Kurdish armed group could leave the city and its environs, and the Russians fled before them. This is an important experience that will be useful to us in the liberation of large settlements of the Donbass and Crimea. Although, most likely, the Crimea will not be the same as with the Donbas, as its geography says. But it will be a little later, but for now - the canton of Arfin has already completely passed under the control of the Turkish Armed Forces.

Commenting on the progress of the Olive Branch operation to create a buffer zone on the border with Turkey, the press secretary of the Turkish President Ibrahim Kalyn in an interview with the British television channel SKY News stated that the Turkish army will ensure stability and security in the region. At the same time, all the vital issues of these territories will be provided by local self-government bodies. The speaker also said that Turkey does not expect any positive steps from the Assad regime regarding the population of these regions, which can be regarded as an application for the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces here indefinitely.

This leads to two important consequences. The first is that, de facto, Syria has ceased to exist as an independent state, even if torn apart by war. It should be noted that Ankara repeatedly and consistently pointed out that the heavy load of crimes committed by Asad against the population of the country excludes the possibility of negotiating with him about the future of the country. That is, two or three years ago it was clearly articulated that Assad should go away in order to not sink the country together with himself and his reputation as a war criminal. However, Assad decided to sacrifice Syria, for the sake of preserving his own skin, in which he supports and Moscow. It is now obvious that neither the Coalition forces, nor Turkey will neither talk with Assad, nor regain occupied territories under his control. Here in the Kremlin can consider the outlines of the near future of the Russian Federation, which Putin is already obviously pulling to the bottom after him.

The second consequence is more pragmatic. Turkey is completing the formation of a buffer zone in the areas that were under the RF and its proxy. Next will be the Kurdish belt, which works with the States. There will be multilayer arrangements, but Turkey will get what it wants, maybe in a smaller amount, but, most likely, without a fight. However, what is more important here is that Moscow loses the Kurdish stranglehold for Ankara, which means that it can shake off those foul-smelling agreements that had to be reached with Moscow, including through the pipe.

Probably, in the Kremlin it was already realized and understood that the Turkish Stream project can be finally buried. In support of this version, we can cite Gazprom's announcement that 500 km of the underground gas pipeline will be dismantled, which has already been laid to the point of entry of the planned four-pipe gas pipeline to Turkey. Now there is no hope that Turkey will break through the Gazprom transit plan to Europe and there is already nothing to exert pressure on Ankara. Moreover, it means that Turkey gets a wonderful opportunity to restore its wet reputation to the EU and to join the work on laying the European TANAP gas pipeline from Azerbaijan. Such a turn of events will give Europe proof that the last period of tension in relations with Turkey was forced and it is now possible to bring relations back to normal. In addition, such a move will be a welcome gift for the allied Turkey of Azerbaijan.

In the dry balance it turns out that Moscow climbed into Syria, pursuing its gas interests, but was defeated. Gazprom has already announced a new program to cut costs, simply because the prospects are becoming in the style: "View of Madrid" and it is necessary to prepare to tighten the belts right up to the spine. But there are also geopolitical consequences.Pursuing the commercial interests of Gazprom, Moscow destroyed Syria both physically and politically. The fight against IGIL has never been Putin's priority, for this is his offspring, but he personally killed Syria.

This happened before the eyes of the whole world and now everyone will have before their eyes an example of what it means to "accept Moscow's help." Shredded and destroyed, in the zone of Russian occupation, Syria is a visiting card of Putin, Moscow and Russia. The help of leprosarium will soon become a synonym for the curse.

Next - version mode.

Thus, last week a new configuration of the alignment of forces in Syria arose. Already now the south of Turkey has received a safety pillow. Some of it is provided by Ankara's own forces, and the second can be considered as such, since the allies of the Kurds, in the zone of responsibility of the coalition, definitely will not aggravate relations with Turkey. There are still a few small places left that are not yet controlled by Turkey or the coalition, and on these narrow sections it is already possible to slowly resolve security issues, albeit with occupation, even without it. That is, the Turks got what they wanted and now they do not care about Assad, the Iranians and the Russians. The states did the same, having a buffer between the Assad-Russians-Iranians and Iraq, where they are firmly entrenched. As already known, this buffer, in addition, is filled with oil and gas, and virtually all of Syria's reserves are under the control of the coalition. Under the Russians and the Iranians there were looted and destroyed by them themselves the areas of Syria, which are not especially needed by anyone for any purpose. The exception is the south, which is adjacent to Israel. This area is very attracted by the Iranian forces, for the preparation of attacks on Israel. Tel Aviv is aware of these plans, as evidenced by regular raids of Israeli aviation. There is an opinion that when the States and Turkey are finally fixed on their zones of occupation, Israel will form its own buffer, as it was previously with the Golan Heights. To do this, he can use any provocation from the territory of Syria, probably executed by the Persians. This completes the configuration of the new reality of Syria. It will be her payment for Assad.

But this is the local aspect of the big game. This is evidenced by some facts of the redeployment of ships of the US Sixth Fleet to the area west of the island of Cyprus, and the grouping of the Russian fleet, consisting of everything that could be afloat and represent at least some naval force, has already developed east of Cyprus. The situation takes on an almost unambiguous interpretation after the American group's reinforcement by the expeditionary group of the US Marine Corps, consisting of several amphibious ships.

Observers say that all this is similar to the preparation of a ground operation in Syria. But if it takes place, then who will be the enemy of this group? And here again one has to remember Turkey and its Black Sea straits. As soon as they close, the entire Russian fleet, ground and air grouping in Syria will become just a kamikaze.

But here there is a reasonable question about why would Turkey make such a move? The answer lies on the surface: because now she can do it, because from Moscow she already does not need anything especially. However, this is only half the answer, and the second part may consist of the obligation to do just this way. This obligation may well arise and this is why.

As you know, right now London raised the flag in a crusade against Moscow. Formal statements, on this account, have already been made. In particular, London has already stated that it has exhaustive data that the chemical agent used in the UK against its citizens during the last ten years has been brought to the condition of weapons by the relevant structures of the Russian Federation. That is, there are all the necessary evidence, which are unequivocally accepted by the British allies as reliable. But in addition, a special commission came to London from the relevant international expert organizations, which will make their conclusion both about the most poisonous substance, and about its manufacturer. There is evidence that the work of the group will take about two weeks.

It is about the results of the work of this group that Angela Merkel said that we must wait for the results. These are not empty words, because if the results of the investigation of the British investigative bodies are confirmed and the Russian Federation is convicted of using CW in the territory of the United Kingdom, its citizens will be formalized the fact of the aggression of the Russian Federation against the UK, and art. No one has yet canceled the NATO Charter. And if Britain declares an attack on itself from the Russian Federation, then all the countries of the Alliance (including Turkey) will be obliged to stand up for the defense of their ally. There are no options or desires. In this case, the united command of NATO will decide on how to react to aggression. In this case, the straits will close instantly.

Such a development of the situation presupposes a formal NATO response and it can be stated in the form of an ultimatum and Moscow already understands the real possibility of developments. That is why the grouping of the Russian navy is concentrated between Cyprus and the coast of Syria and for the same reason, today Putin announced the call of reservists "for two months' fees". In general, today in the Russian Federation, mobilization is announced.

What can be further, we can assume from what the West can in principle do. Most likely, Putin can be given a short term for the evacuation of all his troops, mercenaries and proxies from all conflict zones, where they are involved, including Ukraine, along with the Crimea, Syria, Sudan and other exotic places. After that - a more or less bloody knockout of this rubbish in the direction of the Moksha marshes can begin. Like: "who did not want to - I'm not guilty."

That is, everyone will arrange for the federation to go to its stinky hole and shut up. And, no one is going to violate its borders from outside, and inside this leprosarium they can appoint themselves at least an emperor, at least a pharaoh. This is not going to be interesting to anyone. The main thing is for them to go to their territory. After this, it will be necessary to delineate this place in three circles, add garlic and sprinkle with holy water or sprinkle it.

By the way, we are also calling for the first wave of mobilization. So events unfold swiftly and have just moved into a new phase of increased activity.

Perhaps everything will begin to be resolved without this sequence of events, it may be lost part of them, but it seems that the West is preparing to implement the "premium" program. Meanwhile, there are echelons with китайскими дивизиями.

Source: http://defence-line.org

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