Today is National Flag Day, and tomorrow is Independence Day. On the theme of these holidays, a lot has already been written and more, for sure, will be written no less. We will give a somewhat unusual look at this topic.
So, we celebrate this Flag Day in the conditions when the enemy introduces troops to Belarus. Any movement of enemy troops should be perceived as a real threat of attack and be prepared for any development of the situation. As Western observers note, the deployment of Russian troops to Belarus takes place along with large-scale training of Russian troops elsewhere in the Western strategic direction. From the northern fleet and troops stationed on the Kola Peninsula to the Caucasus, tens of thousands of personnel and equipment arrived. As for Belarus, instead of the declared, conventional 13 thousand military personnel, at the rate of the transfer of troops that are observed now, there may be 100 or more thousand fighters of the Russian Federation.
This should be watched very carefully, since recently the Russian Federation does not conduct exercises, in the usual sense of the term. Maneuvers of troops occur with regular combat weapons and ammunition, and therefore the line between exercises and military operations is very arbitrary. That is, Moscow several years in a row demonstrates the same thing - the deployment of troops to carry out offensive operations. Another thing is that for a couple of years everything has not developed into a large-scale aggression, against neighbors. But this is not because Putin does not want this, but because the neighbors do not make this event promising.
In any case, even the minimum level of activities limited by the phase of the deployment of troops on such a scale will devour a lot of resources, and the beginning of hostilities will require the disposal of all available resources, and as a result - complete disconnection from external sources of funding, for even the current arts cost Moscow all more expensive and more expensive. In general, the phase of the offensive requires the transfer to the western borders of the Russian Federation of huge fuel, ammunition and other supplies, the deployment of field hospitals and similar infrastructure. To what extent this is all there is a question for military intelligence. They know exactly what is going on with these things.
The question of resources is decisive, in this situation. Already right now there are reports that Moscow is starting to wind down many of its programs, which are key in the overall strategy of the "hybrid war." Thus, the financing of numerous private paramilitary companies (PMCs), like the well-known group of war criminals "Wagner", has been sharply reduced. The soldiers of luck already simply do not have money. As insiders inform, the Kremlin is intensively negotiating with large cash bags about transferring PMCs from budgetary financing to private ones. It is said that this event is lame for all four paws, for the big businessmen clearly realize that the financing of mercenaries is tantamount to complicity in war crimes, the investigation of which is just beginning. The connection with the "wild geese" is dangerous because war crimes do not have a statute of limitations and once wedged in the Wagner's PWC or something like that - you'll wait for a knock at the door for the rest of your life. The most unpleasant thing is that already all the big businessmen, or simply - rich cellists or dancers of sports dances, perfectly understand what is waiting for Muscovy, and have long decided on where they will live after the arrival of the northern fur-bearing animal to the Kremlin. So, in those quiet, calm and civilized countries where they created themselves alternative airfields, a knock at the door of the police, about the war crimes, is even more likely than plunged into the Chaos of Muscovy. Therefore, money bags do not want to get into such an openly dirty business.
But not only Wagner felt, with their wallets, unpleasant changes. The financing of the occupied territories or puppet governments is rapidly declining. It is said that despite the Kremlin's harsh orders, the financiers never found sources of financing for Lugandon next year. Cutting rations already felt "krymnas" and other Transnistria and Abkhazia.
By the way, Moldova's recent appeal to the UN with the demand to ensure the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory did not take on an equal footing. Pridnestrovian rulers could bully, threaten and do other irresponsible things, exclusively with Moscow's money. Almost free fuel and regular financial injections kept this stillborn formation afloat. And now, when the source of financing has not just dried up, but it is already clear that it will dry up completely, it's time to seriously think "for the heat" and look for your place in the future. If Moldova's mentioned statement arose five years ago, its result would be an inevitable aggravation of the situation on the line of demarcation. And now - silence. This is because the principle worked: "who feeds the girl, he dances it." In this case, Transdniestria faced a situation where Muscovy was no longer able to support it, Ukraine gradually isolates this territory from its side of the border and as a result of the proposals coming from Chisinau and Bucharest, they are becoming not so bad, with the prospect of remaining single .
All this is due to the fact that the current deployment of Muscovite forces is taking place against the backdrop of an objective and rapidly depleting of resources. Muscovy is capable of a bloody fight, and most likely, such plans are there and all current movements occur in accordance with one of these plans. But something tells us that all these operational plans for offensives are in the form of a "blitzkrieg". That is, the troops of Muscovy must cope with the tasks set for a week or two, a maximum - a month. For more, just not enough resources.
However, in this situation there is one more important point. The importance of a blitzkrieg is to have time to inflict a decisive defeat on the troops of an adversary in the shortest possible time, in order to prevent the emergence of a situation of a lengthy positional war on the depletion of resources. The second important point is the inertness of international organizations that do not have time to respond adequately to large-scale aggression. Once again: the enemy is not ready for aggression, and therefore - the effect of surprise is used, and international organizations are faced with the fact.
But the fact is that the blitzkrieg was clearly in line with these parameters at the beginning of 2014 or in 2015 - the year of elections in the United States. Then the groupings of NATO troops were not deployed, and then the position in relation to the Russian Federation, expressed in multi-layer sanctions, was not determined. Moreover, Ukraine already in no way can give a gift in terms of the effect of surprise. Everything is controlled, observed and recorded, both agentically and instrumentally, using its own reconnaissance assets and partner funds. In general, similar things from the Russian Federation are expected by both military and political circles. This means that Putin's military plans, there are counter-plans for both Ukraine and NATO. Moreover, such focussions will unequivocally return Germany to the sane state and after the disconnection of the Russian gas pipelines, Muscovy will be in the Stone Age in a couple of years.
Against this background, we celebrate our holidays. Therefore, until no one gives a guarantee that the exhumper will not rush into his dying roll to finally bite. We know that Ukraine's power structures have already prepared for this scenario and continue to prepare further, increasing their muscles and iron. They know better how and what to do in this direction. We, ordinary citizens, should stock up on the small flags of Ukraine, which are now sold everywhere and put them in your anxious backpack. In addition, we do not forget to clean and lubricate what many have reserved for the meeting of the Mokshan-Buryat troops and until then they have deposited in a safe, a garage or dug in the garden. It may be needed. If the enemy still tries to get to us further than he already did, then everyone will have the opportunity to celebrate his personal Flag Day. In the bullet hole or knife hole, done personally by you in the carcass of the aggressor, you will need to stick the same flag, the day of which we are celebrating today. And when the last occupier who came to our land will be decorated with a hole and a flag - we look at the calendar and fix the date. It is on this day and we will celebrate Independence Day.Although, perhaps, it will be called the Victory Day, but then it will not be so important. The main thing is that this day will come.
Source: http://defence-line.org
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