In the last days is increasingly in the European Union, there are calls to disconnect Russian Federation from the international system of Bank payments SWIFT. One of the last this idea was expressed by the Vice-President of the European Parliament Ryszard Czarnecki and this, note, is indicative.

Why? Yes, because SWIFT is a European company that responds to the requirements according to European legislation, and, therefore, that trends in the Council of the European Union are significant in this case and not elsewhere "beyond the Ocean".

So what, Europe is ripe for Russia off from SWIFT, frankly, as unprecedented and occurred in the history only once – on blocking transactions for 14 banks in Iran, which greatly damaged by fairly scarce on a range of financial institutions (at the time in Iran was only 30 banks) the Islamic Republic.

But the issue with the SWIFT dominates the minds of the world community since the beginning of 2015. Talking about this as against the aggressor underway since late January, when appeared the first information about a similar scenario, but this plan was not implemented in reality. Why? After all, according to European politicians, only one SWIFT break Russia's GDP by 5%, which should lend tractability to the Kremlin on issues of withdrawal from the occupied territories of Ukraine.

In fact, to deprive Russia of the possibility to use this payment system is not an easy task, because the banking sector of the Federation has hundreds of institutions in the payment system by the number of transactions in second place! Although the volume only on the 15th. But if you disable it, not all at once, but only those to kick in which would cause the most damage to the state.

If disabling it would be done at the beginning of 2015, many banks have been able to withstand the blow, but now many of them are in the state "the patient is more dead than alive" because of the protracted crisis from sanctions. In addition, the economy continues to experience collapsing cramps from falling oil prices, devaluative national currency and falling production. Actually, now that even monopolies are not able to cope with the catastrophic situation in the economy, it would be appropriate to strike through the SWIFT system.

The strategy of the Western world has always been expectant position. Here and now in the EU waited a while, not so much for what would give Russia 1001st a chance to wring their bloody adventure, but for the fact that to wait for more favorable conditions. And when they came, in the European Parliament was raised again the old question "to disable or not disable".

But even if on the sidelines of the EU decision has already been made, it will be implemented no earlier than the execution of at least two conditions. First-full access to the EU market of Iran. This is necessary to make full economic impact through the activities of the Islamic Republic of Russian oil and gas market niches on the beachhead of the Old world. Oh and don't forget about 14 banks in Iran that suggests that the first from SWIFT will be disconnected 14 largest banks of the Russian Federation.

Well, the second condition is, at least, the repayment of Russian companies ' debts on credits in the VI quarter of 2015. The fact that this period is one of peak debt, accounting for $28 billion.

It is at the end of 2015 in connection with picowatt redeemable debts should expect a wave of defaults in the bond market and the interbank market. Let me remind you that the maximum level of devaluation of the ruble fell exactly on this period in 2014 when were the maximum payment of the debts.

What if SWIFT will actually be disabled, it will not happen until December 2015, most likely in the first half of 2016. In any case, the talks at the highest political level is already warmed up this topic. Observable.

Source: zloy_odessit